Ville T Männistö1,2, Veikko Salomaa3, Martti Färkkilä4, Antti Jula3, Satu Männistö3, Iris Erlund3, Jouko Sundvall3, Annamari Lundqvist3, Markus Perola3, Fredrik Åberg5. 1. Departments of Medicine, University of Eastern Finland and Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland. 2. Department of Experimental Vascular Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Location AMC at University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. 3. Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland. 4. Department of Gastroenterology, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki University, Helsinki, Finland. 5. Transplantation and Liver Surgery Clinic, Helsinki University Hospital and University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) increases morbidity and mortality. However, patients in biopsy-based cohorts are highly selected and the absolute risks of liver- and non-liver outcomes in NAFLD in population remains undefined. We analysed both liver-related and non-liver-related outcomes in Finnish population cohorts of NAFLD. METHODS: We included 10 993 individuals (6707 men, mean age 53.3 ± 12.6 years) with NAFLD (fatty liver index ≥60) from the Finnish population-based FINRISK and Health 2000 studies. Liver fibrosis was assessed by the dAAR score, and genetic risk by a recent polygenic risk score (PRS-5). Incident liver-related outcomes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and chronic kidney disease (CKD) were identified through linkage with national registries. RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 12.1 years (1128 069 person-years). The crude incidence rate of liver-related outcomes in NAFLD was 0.97/1000 person-years. The cumulative incidence increased with age, being respectively 2.4% and 1.5% at 20 years in men and women aged 60 years at baseline, while the relative risks for CVD and cancer were 9-16 times higher. The risk of CKD exceeded that of liver outcomes at a baseline age around 50 years. 20-year cumulative incidence of liver-related outcomes was 4.3% in the high, and 1.5% in the low PRS-5 group. The dAAR score associated with liver outcomes, but not with extra-hepatic outcomes. CONCLUSION: The absolute risk of liver-related outcomes in NAFLD is low, with much higher risk of CVD and cancer, emphasizing the need for more individualized and holistic risk-stratification in NAFLD.
BACKGROUND & AIMS:Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) increases morbidity and mortality. However, patients in biopsy-based cohorts are highly selected and the absolute risks of liver- and non-liver outcomes in NAFLD in population remains undefined. We analysed both liver-related and non-liver-related outcomes in Finnish population cohorts of NAFLD. METHODS: We included 10 993 individuals (6707 men, mean age 53.3 ± 12.6 years) with NAFLD (fatty liver index ≥60) from the Finnish population-based FINRISK and Health 2000 studies. Liver fibrosis was assessed by the dAAR score, and genetic risk by a recent polygenic risk score (PRS-5). Incident liver-related outcomes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and chronic kidney disease (CKD) were identified through linkage with national registries. RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 12.1 years (1128 069 person-years). The crude incidence rate of liver-related outcomes in NAFLD was 0.97/1000 person-years. The cumulative incidence increased with age, being respectively 2.4% and 1.5% at 20 years in men and women aged 60 years at baseline, while the relative risks for CVD and cancer were 9-16 times higher. The risk of CKD exceeded that of liver outcomes at a baseline age around 50 years. 20-year cumulative incidence of liver-related outcomes was 4.3% in the high, and 1.5% in the low PRS-5 group. The dAAR score associated with liver outcomes, but not with extra-hepatic outcomes. CONCLUSION: The absolute risk of liver-related outcomes in NAFLD is low, with much higher risk of CVD and cancer, emphasizing the need for more individualized and holistic risk-stratification in NAFLD.