A multistage approach to the cohort analysis of lifetime lung cancer risk among steelworkers exposed to coke oven emissions.

A cohort analysis was performed to predict the lifetime lung cancer risk to a US or Canadian nonwhite male steelworker exposed to coke oven emissions. The procedure employed required that the lung cancer mortality (used for risk assessment) be estimated by addition of the excess to the background rates. The age-specific excess rates were obtained following selection of the proper excess risk function as implied by the multistage theory of carcinogenesis. A quantitative approach based on model fitting was used for selection of the excess risk function. The results show no evidence that coke oven emissions have a late stage carcinogenic effect. The indication that the agent acts as an initiator is moderate to weak. The number of carcinogenic stages involved was estimated to be four. Based on the assumption that exposure was set at a high concentration for 40 years with a starting age of 20 years, it was estimated that the lifetime risk through age 85+ years for a hypothetical US or Canadian nonwhite male oven worker could be as high as 0.40. This represents a 15-fold increase of the baseline risk.