Hui Jiang1,2, Pengfei Song3, Siyi Wang4, Wangli Xu5, Weimin Li6,7,8, Shuangshuang Yin3, Jinfeng Yin1, Chendi Zhu1,2, Chao Cai9. 1. Beijing Chest Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 101149, China. 2. Beijing Tuberculosis and Thoracic Tumor Research Institute, Beijing, 101149, China. 3. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, ShaanXi, China. 4. Center for Applied Statistics, School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China. 5. Center for Applied Statistics, School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China. xwlbnu@163.com. 6. Beijing Chest Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 101149, China. lwm_18@aliyun.com. 7. Beijing Tuberculosis and Thoracic Tumor Research Institute, Beijing, 101149, China. lwm_18@aliyun.com. 8. Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, China. lwm_18@aliyun.com. 9. Beijing Youan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, China.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of Fangcang shelter hospitals, designated hospitals, and the time interval from illness onset to diagnosis toward the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: We used SEIAR and SEIA-CQFH warehouse models to simulate the two-period epidemic in Wuhan and calculate the time dependent basic reproduction numbers (BRNs) of symptomatic infected individuals, asymptomatic infected individuals, exposed individuals, and community-isolated infected individuals. Scenarios that varied in terms of the maximum numbers of open beds in Fangcang shelter hospitals and designated hospitals, and the time intervals from illness onset to hospitals visit and diagnosis were considered to quantitatively assess the optimal measures. RESULTS: The BRN decreased from 4.50 on Jan 22, 2020 to 0.18 on March 18, 2020. Without Fangcang shelter hospitals, the cumulative numbers of cases and deaths would increase by 18.58 and 51.73%, respectively. If the number of beds in the designated hospitals decreased by 1/2 and 1/4, the number of cumulative cases would increase by 178.04 and 92.1%, respectively. If the time interval from illness onset to hospital visit was 4 days, the number of cumulative cases and deaths would increase by 2.79 and 6.19%, respectively. If Fangcang shelter hospitals were not established, the number of beds in designated hospitals reduced 1/4, and the time interval from visiting hospitals to diagnosis became 4 days, the cumulative number of cases would increase by 268.97%. CONCLUSION: The declining BRNs indicate the high effectiveness of the joint measures. The joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals are crucial and need to be rolled out globally, especially when medical resources are limited.
OBJECTIVE: To quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of Fangcang shelter hospitals, designated hospitals, and the time interval from illness onset to diagnosis toward the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: We used SEIAR and SEIA-CQFH warehouse models to simulate the two-period epidemic in Wuhan and calculate the time dependent basic reproduction numbers (BRNs) of symptomatic infected individuals, asymptomatic infected individuals, exposed individuals, and community-isolated infected individuals. Scenarios that varied in terms of the maximum numbers of open beds in Fangcang shelter hospitals and designated hospitals, and the time intervals from illness onset to hospitals visit and diagnosis were considered to quantitatively assess the optimal measures. RESULTS: The BRN decreased from 4.50 on Jan 22, 2020 to 0.18 on March 18, 2020. Without Fangcang shelter hospitals, the cumulative numbers of cases and deaths would increase by 18.58 and 51.73%, respectively. If the number of beds in the designated hospitals decreased by 1/2 and 1/4, the number of cumulative cases would increase by 178.04 and 92.1%, respectively. If the time interval from illness onset to hospital visit was 4 days, the number of cumulative cases and deaths would increase by 2.79 and 6.19%, respectively. If Fangcang shelter hospitals were not established, the number of beds in designated hospitals reduced 1/4, and the time interval from visiting hospitals to diagnosis became 4 days, the cumulative number of cases would increase by 268.97%. CONCLUSION: The declining BRNs indicate the high effectiveness of the joint measures. The joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals are crucial and need to be rolled out globally, especially when medical resources are limited.
Authors: Stephen A Lauer; Kyra H Grantz; Qifang Bi; Forrest K Jones; Qulu Zheng; Hannah R Meredith; Andrew S Azman; Nicholas G Reich; Justin Lessler Journal: Ann Intern Med Date: 2020-03-10 Impact factor: 25.391