| Literature DB >> 34208187 |
Kostas Rontos1, Maria-Eleni Syrmali1, Luca Salvati2.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly evolved into an acute health crisis with extensive socioeconomic and demographic consequences. The severity of the COVID-19 pandemic requires a refined (and more comprehensive) understanding of virus dissemination over space, transmission mechanisms, clinical features, and risk factors. In line with this assumption, the present study illustrates a comparative, empirical analysis of the role of socioeconomic and demographic dimensions in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic grounded on a large set of indicators comparing the background context across a global sample of countries. Results indicate that-in addition to epidemiological factors-basic socioeconomic forces significantly shaped contagions as well as hospitalization and death rates across countries. As a response to the global crisis driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, all-embracing access to healthcare services should be strengthened along with the development of sustainable health systems supported by appropriate resources and skills. The empirical findings of this study have direct implications for the coordination of on-going, global efforts aimed at containing COVID-19 (and other, future) pandemics.Entities:
Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; contagions; health policy; healthcare; indicators
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34208187 PMCID: PMC8296180 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18126340
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health ISSN: 1660-4601 Impact factor: 3.390
Model summary (total infections as dependent variable).
| Model | R | R Square | Adjusted R Square | Std. Error of the Estimate | Change Statistics | Durbin–Watson | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Square Change | F Change | df1 | df2 | Sig. F Change | ||||||
| 1 | 0.716 a | 0.513 | 0.500 | 832.8039 | 0.513 | 38.945 | 1 | 37 | 0.000 | |
| 2 | 0.823 b | 0.677 | 0.659 | 687.1179 | 0.165 | 18.353 | 1 | 36 | 0.000 | |
| 3 | 0.861 c | 0.741 | 0.718 | 624.9052 | 0.063 | 8.525 | 1 | 35 | 0.006 | 1.822 |
a Predictors: (constant), tests per million; b predictors: (constant), tests per million, population density (people per sq. km of land area); c predictors: (constant), tests per million, pop. density (people per km2 of land area), air transport passengers;
Model coefficients.
| Model | Unstandardized Coefficients | Standardized Coefficients | t | Sig. | Correlations | Collinearity Statistics | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | Std. Error | Beta | Zero order | Partial | Part | Tolerance | VIF | ||||
| 1 | (Constant) | 41.127 | 94.948 | 1.728 | 0.032 | ||||||
| Tests per million | 0.046 | 0.007 | 0.716 | 6.241 | 0.000 | 0.716 | 0.716 | 0.716 | 1.000 | 1.000 | |
| 2 | (Constant) | 40.751 | 89.672 | 1.762 | 0.035 | ||||||
| Tests per million | 0.040 | 0.006 | 0.615 | 6.304 | 0.000 | 0.716 | 0.724 | 0.597 | 0.942 | 1.062 | |
| Population density | 0.465 | 0.109 | 0.418 | 4.284 | 0.000 | 0.567 | 0.581 | 0.406 | 0.942 | 1.062 | |
| 3 | (Constant) | 0.256 | 0.601 | 2.651 | 0.000 | ||||||
| Tests per million | 0.047 | 0.006 | 0.732 | 7.519 | 0.000 | 0.716 | 0.786 | 0.647 | 0.782 | 1.279 | |
| Population density | 0.409 | 0.101 | 0.357 | 4.062 | 0.000 | 0.567 | 0.566 | 0.350 | 0.907 | 1.103 | |
| Air transport passengers | 0.637 | 0.741 | 0.277 | 2.920 | 0.006 | 0.029 | 0.443 | 0.251 | 0.825 | 1.212 | |
Dependent variable: total cases per million population.
Collinearity diagnostics of the final stepwise model.
| Model | Dimension | Eigenvalue | Condition Index | Variance Proportions | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Constant) | Tests | Population Density | Air Passengers Carried | ||||
| 3 | 1 | 3.185 | 1.000 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| 2 | 0.701 | 2.131 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.01 | |
| 3 | 0.099 | 5.672 | 0.86 | 0.01 | 0.49 | 0.05 | |
| 4 | 0.014 | 14.882 | 0.12 | 0.98 | 0.03 | 0.94 | |
Dependent variable: total cases per million population.
Model summary (total deaths as dependent variables).
| Model | R | R Square | Adjusted R Square | Std. Error of the Estimate | Change Statistics | Durbin–Watson | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Square Change | F Change | df1 | df2 | Sig. F Change | ||||||
| 1 | 0.882 a | 0.778 | 0.753 | 49.0011 | 0.778 | 31.451 | 1 | 9 | 0.000 | |
| 2 | 0.937 b | 0.878 | 0.847 | 38.5258 | 0.100 | 6.560 | 1 | 8 | 0.034 | |
| 3 | 0.970 c | 0.941 | 0.916 | 28.5879 | 0.063 | 7.529 | 1 | 7 | 0.029 | 2.008 |
a Predictors: (constant), tests; b predictors: (constant), tests, population aged 65 and over (% of total population); c predictors: (constant), tests, population aged 65 + (% total population), population, male (% total population).
Model coefficients.
| Model | Unstandardized Coefficients | Standardized Coefficients | t | Sig. | Correlations | Collinearity Statistics | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | Std. Error | Beta | Zero Order | Partial | Part | Tolerance | VIF | ||||
| 1 | (Constant) | 1.333 | 19.192 | 2.032 | 0.003 | ||||||
| Tests | −0.011 | 0.002 | −0.882 | −5.608 | 0.000 | −0.885 | −0.842 | −0.761 | 1.000 | 1.000 | |
| 2 | (Constant) | 12.861 | 16.075 | 0.800 | 0.447 | ||||||
| Tests | −0.013 | 0.002 | −0.804 | −7.577 | 0.000 | −0.882 | −0.937 | −0.943 | 0.870 | 1.149 | |
| Population aged 65+ | −0.091 | 0.035 | 0.339 | 2.561 | 0.034 | 0.022 | 0.671 | 0.317 | 0.868 | 1.153 | |
| 3 | (Constant) | 0.849 | 0.091 | 2.835 | 0.025 | ||||||
| Tests | −0.118 | 0.022 | −0.827 | −7.805 | 0.000 | −0.882 | −0.947 | −0.716 | 0.752 | 1.372 | |
| Population aged 65+ | 0.209 | 0.050 | 0.783 | 4.138 | 0.004 | 0.022 | 0.843 | 0.380 | 0.835 | 1.250 | |
| Population, male | 0.703 | 0.074 | 0.551 | 2.744 | 0.029 | 0.544 | 0.720 | 0.252 | 0.909 | 1.391 | |
Dependent variable: total deaths per million population.
Collinearity diagnostics of the final stepwise model.
| Model | Dimension | Eigenvalue | Condition Index | Variance Proportions | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constant | Tests | Population Aged | Population Male | ||||
| 3 | 1 | 2.356 | 1.000 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| 2 | 0.568 | 2.036 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.11 | 0.00 | |
| 3 | 0.109 | 3.018 | 0.03 | 0.40 | 0.24 | 0.04 | |
| 4 | 0.075 | 5.590 | 0.17 | 0.45 | 0.86 | 0.27 | |
Dependent Variable: deaths per million population.
Model summary (hospitalized patients as dependent variable).
| Model | R | R Square | Adjusted R Square | Std. Error of the Estimate | Change Statistics | Durbin–Watson | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Square Change | F Change | df1 | df2 | Sig. F Change | ||||||
| 1 | 0.725 a | 0.526 | 0.478 | 0.069029 | 0.526 | 11.087 | 1 | 10 | 0.008 | |
| 2 | 0.868 b | 0.753 | 0.698 | 0.052521 | 0.227 | 8.274 | 1 | 9 | 0.018 | |
| 3 | 0.932 c | 0.868 | 0.819 | 0.040713 | 0.115 | 6.978 | 1 | 8 | 0.030 | 2.059 |
a Predictors: (constant), tests per million; b predictors: (constant), tests per million, physicians; c predictors: (constant), tests per million, physicians, morbidity.
Model coefficients.
| Model | Unstandardized Coefficients | Standardized Coefficients | t | Sig. | Correlations | Collinearity Statistics | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | Std. Error | Beta | Zero Order | Partial | Part | Tolerance | VIF | ||||
| 1 | (Constant) | 0.049 | 0.026 | 1.905 | 0.086 | ||||||
| Tests per million | 0.820 | 0.102 | 0.904 | 8.034 | 0.000 | 0.828 | −0.943 | 0.892 | 0.974 | 1.027 | |
| 2 | (Constant) | 0.056 | 0.018 | 1.989 | 0.095 | ||||||
| Tests per million) | 0.750 | 0.170 | 0.828 | 4.424 | 0.002 | 0.828 | 0.818 | 0.709 | 1.000 | 1.000 | |
| Physicians | 0.085 | 0.020 | 0.471 | 4.188 | 0.003 | 0.324 | 0.829 | 0.465 | 0.974 | 1.027 | |
| 3 | (Constant) | 0.037 | 0.027 | 1.381 | 0.205 | ||||||
| Tests per million | 0.879 | 0.048 | 0.838 | 18.302 | 0.000 | 0.828 | 0.990 | 0.933 | 0.925 | 1.081 | |
| Physicians | 0.067 | 0.010 | 0.555 | 6.993 | 0.000 | 0.324 | 0.935 | 0.357 | 0.883 | 1.132 | |
| Morbidity | −0.209 | 0.050 | −0.350 | −4.138 | 0.004 | 0.022 | −0.843 | −0.380 | 0.235 | 1.250 | |
Dependent variable: recovered patients.
Collinearity diagnostics of the final stepwise model.
| Model | Dimension | Eigenvalue | Condition Index | Variance Proportions | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constant | Tests | Physicians | Morbidity | ||||
| 3 | 1 | 3.306 | 1.000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| 2 | 0.575 | 2.397 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.21 | |
| 3 | 0.109 | 5.503 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.54 | 0.40 | |
| 4 | 0.010 | 18.484 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.35 | 0.38 | |
Dependent variable: recovered patients.