| Literature DB >> 34188816 |
Zhiting Chen1, Hongyan Liu1, Chongyang Xu1, Xiuchen Wu2, Boyi Liang1, Jing Cao1, Deliang Chen3.
Abstract
Climate sensitivity of vegetation has long been explored using statistical or process-based models. However, great uncertainties still remain due to the methodologies' deficiency in capturing the complex interactions between climate and vegetation. Here, we developed global gridded climate-vegetation models based on long short-term memory (LSTM) network, which is a powerful deep-learning algorithm for long-time series modeling, to achieve accurate vegetation monitoring and investigate the complex relationship between climate and vegetation. We selected the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) that represents vegetation greenness as model outputs. The climate data (monthly temperature and precipitation) were used as inputs. We trained the networks with data from 1982 to 2003, and the data from 2004 to 2015 were used to validate the models. Error analysis and sensitivity analysis were performed to assess the model errors and investigate the sensitivity of global vegetation to climate change. Results show that models based on deep learning are very effective in simulating and predicting the vegetation greenness dynamics. For models training, the root mean square error (RMSE) is <0.01. Model validation also assure the accuracy of our models. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis of models revealed a spatial pattern of global vegetation to climate, which provides us a new way to investigate the climate sensitivity of vegetation. Our study suggests that it is a good way to integrate deep-learning method to monitor the vegetation change under global change. In the future, we can explore more complex climatic and ecological systems with deep learning and coupling with certain physical process to better understand the nature.Entities:
Keywords: climate change; climate sensitivity; deep learning; long short‐term memory network; vegetation greenness; vegetation–climate relationship
Year: 2021 PMID: 34188816 PMCID: PMC8216928 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.7564
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Ecol Evol ISSN: 2045-7758 Impact factor: 2.912
FIGURE 1Model simulation and validation based on deep learning. (a1–a3) Three grid models randomly selected across a latitudinal gradient. The first 22 years (264 months) are used to train the models, and the next 12 years (144 months) are used to validate the model accuracy. The red line and purple line represent the original NDVI values, and the blue line and green line represent the model simulations
FIGURE 2Statistics of model training and validation results. (a) represents the root mean square error (RMSE) to reveal the global model fitting accuracy on the training sets. (b) represents coefficient of variation (CV) to validate the models on the validating sets
FIGURE 3Sensitivity analysis of the models. (a) represents the global vegetation sensitivity to climate. (b) shows the spatial distribution of global land cover types based on the International Geosphere‐Biosphere Program (IGBP) scheme and the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer land cover product MOD12C1
FIGURE 4Correlations between the model CV and the related variables: (a) Interannual variations in temperature(IAT); (b) Interannual variations in precipitation(IAP); (c) Interannual variations in vegetation (IAV); (d) Mean annual temperature (MAT); (e) Mean annual precipitation (MAP); and (f) Increasing temperature (ΔTMP). All the values were calculated based on remotely sensed data from 1982 to 2015
FIGURE 5Model performance in different land cover types and temperature scenarios. (a) The model performances (CV) vary with land cover types (defined by the MODIS‐based IGBP land cover classification types for 2012). (a) CV > 15% means that the modeling accuracy is relatively low, and CV < 15% means a high modeling accuracy. The data used here are output by the model validation datasets. (b, c) The relationship between mean annual temperature (MAT) and model CV and the vegetation variation (IAV), calculated by the NDVI coefficient of variation from 1982 to 2015. (d, e) The relationship between temperature change (from 1982 to 2015) and model CV and the vegetation variation (IAV)