Granville J Matheson1,2, Juan G Abraldes3, Wayne Bai3, Mustafa Al-Karaghouli3, Jesse Stach3,4, Shuen Sung3. 1. Department of Biostatistics, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY. 2. Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Center for Psychiatry Research, Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm County Council, Stockholm, Sweden. 3. Division of Gastroenterology (Liver Unit), University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada. 4. Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Portal hypertension (PH) is a major driver for cirrhosis complications. Portal pressure is estimated in practice by the HVPG. The assessment of HVPG changes has been used for drug development in PH. This study aimed at quantifying the test-retest reliability and consistency of HVPG in the specific context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for the treatment of PH in cirrhosis and its impact on power calculations for trial design. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We conducted a search of published RCTs in patients with cirrhosis reporting individual patient-level data of HVPG at baseline and after an intervention, which included a placebo or an untreated control arm. Baseline and follow-up HVPGs in the control groups were extracted after digitizing the plots. We assessed reliability and consistency and the potential impact of study characteristics. We retrieved a total of 289 before and after HVPG measurements in the placebo/untreated groups from 20 RCTs. The time span between the two HVPG measurements ranged between 20 minutes and 730 days. Pre-/post-HVPG variability was lower in studies including only compensated patients; therefore, modeled sample size calculations for trials in compensated cirrhosis were lower than for decompensated cirrhosis. A higher proportion of alcohol-associated cirrhosis and unicentric trials was associated with lower differences between baseline and follow-up measurements. The smallest detectable difference in an individual was 26% and 30% in compensated and decompensated patients, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The test-retest reliability of HVPG is overall excellent. Within-individual variance was higher in studies including higher proportions of decompensated patients. These findings should be taken into account when performing power analysis for trials based on the effects on HVPG or when considering HVPG as a tool to guide therapy of PH.
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Portal hypertension (PH) is a major driver for cirrhosis complications. Portal pressure is estimated in practice by the HVPG. The assessment of HVPG changes has been used for drug development in PH. This study aimed at quantifying the test-retest reliability and consistency of HVPG in the specific context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for the treatment of PH in cirrhosis and its impact on power calculations for trial design. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We conducted a search of published RCTs in patients with cirrhosis reporting individual patient-level data of HVPG at baseline and after an intervention, which included a placebo or an untreated control arm. Baseline and follow-up HVPGs in the control groups were extracted after digitizing the plots. We assessed reliability and consistency and the potential impact of study characteristics. We retrieved a total of 289 before and after HVPG measurements in the placebo/untreated groups from 20 RCTs. The time span between the two HVPG measurements ranged between 20 minutes and 730 days. Pre-/post-HVPG variability was lower in studies including only compensated patients; therefore, modeled sample size calculations for trials in compensated cirrhosis were lower than for decompensated cirrhosis. A higher proportion of alcohol-associated cirrhosis and unicentric trials was associated with lower differences between baseline and follow-up measurements. The smallest detectable difference in an individual was 26% and 30% in compensated and decompensated patients, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The test-retest reliability of HVPG is overall excellent. Within-individual variance was higher in studies including higher proportions of decompensated patients. These findings should be taken into account when performing power analysis for trials based on the effects on HVPG or when considering HVPG as a tool to guide therapy of PH.