Paul Truche1, Fabio Botelho2, Alexis N Bowder3, Alexander W Levis4, Sarah L M Greenberg5,6, Emily Smith7, Scott Corlew3, Stephen Bickler8, Henry E Rice7,9, Emmanuel A Ameh10, John G Meara3,11, Dan Poenaru12, David P Mooney13. 1. Program in Global Surgery and Social Change, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. paul.truche@gmail.com. 2. Division of Pediatric Surgery, Hospital das Clínicas, UFMG, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil. 3. Program in Global Surgery and Social Change, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. 4. Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. 5. Division of Pediatric General and Thoracic Surgery, Seattle Children's Hospital, Seattle, WA, USA. 6. Department of Surgery, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. 7. Duke Global Health Institute, Durham, NC, USA. 8. Rady Children's Hospital, University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA. 9. Division of Pediatric Surgery, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA. 10. Department of Pediatric Surgery, Ahmadu Bello University Teaching Hospital, Zaria, Nigeria. 11. Department of Plastic and Oral Surgery, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA. 12. Department of Pediatric Surgery, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, QC, USA. 13. Department of Pediatric Surgery, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Expansion of access to surgical care can improve health outcomes, although the impact that scale-up of the surgical workforce will have on child mortality is poorly defined. In this study, we estimate the number of child deaths potentially avertable by increasing the surgical workforce globally to meet targets proposed by the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery. METHODS: To estimate the number of deaths potentially avertable through increases in the surgical workforce, we used log-linear regression to model the association between surgeon, anesthetist and obstetrician workforce (SAO) density and surgically amenable under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), infant mortality rate (IMR), and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for 192 countries adjusting for potential confounders of childhood mortality, including the non-surgical workforce (physicians, nurses/midwives, community health workers), gross national income per capita, poverty rate, female literacy rate, health expenditure per capita, percentage of urban population, number of surgical operations, and hospital bed density. Surgically amenable mortality was determined using mortality estimates from the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation adjusted by the proportion of deaths in each country due to communicable causes unlikely to be amenable to surgical care. Estimates of mortality reduction due to upscaling surgical care to support the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery (LCoGS) minimum target of 20-40 SAO/100,000 were calculated accounting for potential increases in surgical volume associated with surgical workforce expansion. RESULTS: Increasing SAO workforce density was independently associated with lower surgically amenable U5MR as well as NMR (p < 0.01 for each model). When accounting for concomitant increases in surgical volume, scale-up of the surgical workforce to 20-40 SAO/100,000 could potentially prevent between 262,709 (95% CI 229,643-295,434) and 519,629 (465,046-573,919) under 5 deaths annually. The majority (61%) of deaths averted would be neonatal deaths. CONCLUSION: Scale up of surgical workforce may substantially decrease childhood mortality rates around the world. Our analysis suggests that scale-up of surgical delivery through increase in the SAO workforce could prevent over 500,000 children from dying before the age of 5 annually. This would represent significant progress toward meeting global child mortality reduction targets.
BACKGROUND: Expansion of access to surgical care can improve health outcomes, although the impact that scale-up of the surgical workforce will have on child mortality is poorly defined. In this study, we estimate the number of child deaths potentially avertable by increasing the surgical workforce globally to meet targets proposed by the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery. METHODS: To estimate the number of deaths potentially avertable through increases in the surgical workforce, we used log-linear regression to model the association between surgeon, anesthetist and obstetrician workforce (SAO) density and surgically amenable under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), infant mortality rate (IMR), and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for 192 countries adjusting for potential confounders of childhood mortality, including the non-surgical workforce (physicians, nurses/midwives, community health workers), gross national income per capita, poverty rate, female literacy rate, health expenditure per capita, percentage of urban population, number of surgical operations, and hospital bed density. Surgically amenable mortality was determined using mortality estimates from the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation adjusted by the proportion of deaths in each country due to communicable causes unlikely to be amenable to surgical care. Estimates of mortality reduction due to upscaling surgical care to support the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery (LCoGS) minimum target of 20-40 SAO/100,000 were calculated accounting for potential increases in surgical volume associated with surgical workforce expansion. RESULTS: Increasing SAO workforce density was independently associated with lower surgically amenable U5MR as well as NMR (p < 0.01 for each model). When accounting for concomitant increases in surgical volume, scale-up of the surgical workforce to 20-40 SAO/100,000 could potentially prevent between 262,709 (95% CI 229,643-295,434) and 519,629 (465,046-573,919) under 5 deaths annually. The majority (61%) of deaths averted would be neonatal deaths. CONCLUSION: Scale up of surgical workforce may substantially decrease childhood mortality rates around the world. Our analysis suggests that scale-up of surgical delivery through increase in the SAO workforce could prevent over 500,000 children from dying before the age of 5 annually. This would represent significant progress toward meeting global child mortality reduction targets.
Authors: John G Meara; Andrew J M Leather; Lars Hagander; Blake C Alkire; Nivaldo Alonso; Emmanuel A Ameh; Stephen W Bickler; Lesong Conteh; Anna J Dare; Justine Davies; Eunice Dérivois Mérisier; Shenaaz El-Halabi; Paul E Farmer; Atul Gawande; Rowan Gillies; Sarah L M Greenberg; Caris E Grimes; Russell L Gruen; Edna Adan Ismail; Thaim Buya Kamara; Chris Lavy; Ganbold Lundeg; Nyengo C Mkandawire; Nakul P Raykar; Johanna N Riesel; Edgar Rodas; John Rose; Nobhojit Roy; Mark G Shrime; Richard Sullivan; Stéphane Verguet; David Watters; Thomas G Weiser; Iain H Wilson; Gavin Yamey; Winnie Yip Journal: Lancet Date: 2015-04-26 Impact factor: 79.321
Authors: Paul Truche; Emily R Smith; Adesoji Ademuyiwa; Alexandra Buda; Mary T Nabukenya; Neema Kaseje; Emmanuel A Ameh; Sarah Greenberg; Faye Evans; Stephen Bickler; John G Meara; Henry E Rice Journal: World J Surg Date: 2022-06-25 Impact factor: 3.282