| Literature DB >> 34099683 |
Ulf Büntgen1,2,3,4, Kathy Allen5,6, Kevin J Anchukaitis7, Dominique Arseneault8, Étienne Boucher9,10,11, Achim Bräuning12, Snigdhansu Chatterjee13, Paolo Cherubini14, Olga V Churakova Sidorova15, Christophe Corona16,17, Fabio Gennaretti18, Jussi Grießinger12, Sebastian Guillet17, Joel Guiot19, Björn Gunnarson20, Samuli Helama21, Philipp Hochreuther12, Malcolm K Hughes22, Peter Huybers23, Alexander V Kirdyanov15,24, Paul J Krusic25,20, Josef Ludescher26, Wolfgang J-H Meier12, Vladimir S Myglan27, Kurt Nicolussi28, Clive Oppenheimer25,29, Frederick Reinig30, Matthew W Salzer22, Kristina Seftigen14,31, Alexander R Stine32, Markus Stoffel17,33,34, Scott St George35, Ernesto Tejedor36, Aleyda Trevino23, Valerie Trouet22, Jianglin Wang37,38,39, Rob Wilson40,41, Bao Yang37,38,39, Guobao Xu22,42, Jan Esper43,30.
Abstract
Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794-2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.Entities:
Year: 2021 PMID： 34099683 DOI： 10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Nat Commun ISSN： 2041-1723 Impact factor: 14.919