Alyssa Bilinski1, Joshua A Salomon2, John Giardina3, Andrea Ciaranello4, Meagan C Fitzpatrick5. 1. Interfaculty Initiative in Health Policy, Harvard Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Cambridge, Massachusetts (A.B.). 2. Center for Health Policy and Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California (J.A.S.). 3. Interfaculty Initiative in Health Policy, Harvard Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Cambridge, and Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts (J.G.). 4. Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (A.C.). 5. Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (M.C.F.).
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has induced historic educational disruptions. In April 2021, about 40% of U.S. public school students were not offered full-time in-person education. OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools. DESIGN: An agent-based network model was developed to simulate transmission in elementary and high school communities, including home, school, and interhousehold interactions. SETTING: School structure was parametrized to reflect average U.S. classrooms, with elementary schools of 638 students and high schools of 1451 students. Daily local incidence was varied from 1 to 100 cases per 100 000 persons. PARTICIPANTS: Students, faculty, staff, and adult household members. INTERVENTION: Isolation of symptomatic individuals, quarantine of an infected individual's contacts, reduced class sizes, alternative schedules, staff vaccination, and weekly asymptomatic screening. MEASUREMENTS: Transmission was projected among students, staff, and families after a single infection in school and over an 8-week quarter, contingent on local incidence. RESULTS: School transmission varies according to student age and local incidence and is substantially reduced with mitigation measures. Nevertheless, when transmission occurs, it may be difficult to detect without regular testing because of the subclinical nature of most children's infections. Teacher vaccination can reduce transmission to staff, and asymptomatic screening improves understanding of local circumstances and reduces transmission. LIMITATION: Uncertainty exists about the susceptibility and infectiousness of children, and precision is low regarding the effectiveness of specific countermeasures, particularly with new variants. CONCLUSION: With controlled community transmission and moderate mitigation, elementary schools can open safety, but high schools require more intensive mitigation. Asymptomatic screening can facilitate reopening at higher local incidence while minimizing transmission risk. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and Facebook.
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has induced historic educational disruptions. In April 2021, about 40% of U.S. public school students were not offered full-time in-person education. OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools. DESIGN: An agent-based network model was developed to simulate transmission in elementary and high school communities, including home, school, and interhousehold interactions. SETTING: School structure was parametrized to reflect average U.S. classrooms, with elementary schools of 638 students and high schools of 1451 students. Daily local incidence was varied from 1 to 100 cases per 100 000 persons. PARTICIPANTS: Students, faculty, staff, and adult household members. INTERVENTION: Isolation of symptomatic individuals, quarantine of an infected individual's contacts, reduced class sizes, alternative schedules, staff vaccination, and weekly asymptomatic screening. MEASUREMENTS: Transmission was projected among students, staff, and families after a single infection in school and over an 8-week quarter, contingent on local incidence. RESULTS: School transmission varies according to student age and local incidence and is substantially reduced with mitigation measures. Nevertheless, when transmission occurs, it may be difficult to detect without regular testing because of the subclinical nature of most children's infections. Teacher vaccination can reduce transmission to staff, and asymptomatic screening improves understanding of local circumstances and reduces transmission. LIMITATION: Uncertainty exists about the susceptibility and infectiousness of children, and precision is low regarding the effectiveness of specific countermeasures, particularly with new variants. CONCLUSION: With controlled community transmission and moderate mitigation, elementary schools can open safety, but high schools require more intensive mitigation. Asymptomatic screening can facilitate reopening at higher local incidence while minimizing transmission risk. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and Facebook.
Authors: Trystan Leng; Edward M Hill; Robin N Thompson; Michael J Tildesley; Matt J Keeling; Louise Dyson Journal: PLoS Comput Biol Date: 2022-05-27 Impact factor: 4.779
Authors: Shari Krishnaratne; Hannah Littlecott; Kerstin Sell; Jacob Burns; Julia E Rabe; Jan M Stratil; Tim Litwin; Clemens Kreutz; Michaela Coenen; Karin Geffert; Anna Helen Boger; Ani Movsisyan; Suzie Kratzer; Carmen Klinger; Katharina Wabnitz; Brigitte Strahwald; Ben Verboom; Eva Rehfuess; Renke L Biallas; Caroline Jung-Sievers; Stephan Voss; Lisa M Pfadenhauer Journal: Cochrane Database Syst Rev Date: 2022-01-17
Authors: Alyssa Bilinski; Andrea Ciaranello; Meagan C Fitzpatrick; John Giardina; Maunank Shah; Joshua A Salomon; Emily A Kendall Journal: medRxiv Date: 2021-08-10
Authors: John Giardina; Alyssa Bilinski; Meagan C Fitzpatrick; Emily A Kendall; Benjamin P Linas; Joshua Salomon; Andrea L Ciaranello Journal: medRxiv Date: 2021-11-16
Authors: John Giardina; Alyssa Bilinski; Meagan C Fitzpatrick; Emily A Kendall; Benjamin P Linas; Joshua Salomon; Andrea L Ciaranello Journal: JAMA Netw Open Date: 2022-02-01
Authors: Akira Endo; Mitsuo Uchida; Naoki Hayashi; Yang Liu; Katherine E Atkins; Adam J Kucharski; Sebastian Funk Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Date: 2021-11-16 Impact factor: 12.779