Effectiveness of Testing and Contact-Tracing to Counter COVID-19 Pandemic: Designed Experiments of Agent-Based Simulation.

The widespread outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 has posed an enormous threat to global public health. A different set of policy interventions has been implemented to mitigate the spread in most countries. While the use of personal protective equipment and social distancing has been specifically emphasized, South Korea has deployed massive testing and contact-tracing program from the early stage of the outbreak. This study aims at investigating the effectiveness of testing and contact-tracing to counter the spread of infectious diseases. Based on the SEICR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-confirmed-recovered) model, an agent-based simulation model is developed to represent the behavior of disease spreading with the consideration of testing and contact-tracing in place. Designed experiments are conducted to verify the effects of testing and contact tracing on the peak number of infections. It has been observed that testing combined with contact tracing may lower the peak infections to a great extent, and it can thus be avoided for the hospital bed capacity to be overwhelmed by infected patients. It is implied that an adequate capability of testing and contact-tracing may enable us to become better prepared for an impending risk of infectious diseases.