Yu-Jiao Wang1, Li-Li Ma1,2, Yun Liu1, Yan Yan1, Ying Sun1, Yong-Shi Wang3, Xiao-Min Dai1, Zong-Fei Ji1, Ling-Ying Ma1, Hui-Yong Chen1, Lin-Di Jiang4,5. 1. Department of Rheumatology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, 180 Fenglin Road, Shanghai, 200032, People's Republic of China. 2. Evidence-base Medicine Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China. 3. Department of Echocardiography, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China. 4. Department of Rheumatology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, 180 Fenglin Road, Shanghai, 200032, People's Republic of China. zsh-rheum@hotmail.com. 5. Evidence-base Medicine Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China. zsh-rheum@hotmail.com.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: We aimed to construct and validate a risk assessment model to identify risk factors for heart failure (HF) in patients with Takayasu's arteritis (TAK). METHODS: Three hundred sixty-five patients with TAK were recruited in the East China Takayasu Arteritis Cohort from January 2012 to December 2019. Patients were assigned into training and validation sets following a 2:1 ratio according to the date of enrollment. Clinical characteristics were compared between heart failure (HF) and non-HF subgroups in the training set, and a risk assessment model for HF and its scoring algorithm was established based on logistic regression, which was tested in the validation set. RESULTS: Among total of 74 (20.27%) TAK patients exhibited HF, and 55 cases (74.32%) were in the training set. The risk factors for HF of TAK patients included onset age >38 years, serum tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α concentration >10 pg/ml, aortic valve involvement, coronary artery involvement, and pulmonary hypertension. We constructed the model without TNF-α (Model 1) and with TNF-α (Model 2). Patients in the training set with the score ≥ 3 appeared to be associated with an increased risk of HF with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.88 and 0.90 in Model 1 and Model 2 respectively. The AUC reached to 0.88 and 0.89 in the validation set that proved the accuracy of the model. CONCLUSIONS: We presented a risk assessment model of HF in TAK, which may help clinicians alert the complication of HF in the patients with specifically cardiac impairments. Key Points • Heart failure was not rare in Chinese Takayasu's arteritis patients, and there were approximately 20% of patients with heart failure in ECTA cohort. • Cardiac involvements on echocardiography include pathological valvular and atrioventricular abnormalities. • The onset age >38 years, serum tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α concentration >10 pg/ml, aortic valve involvement, coronary artery involvement, and pulmonary hypertension were risk factors for heart failure in Takayasu's arteritis patients. • We constructed the model without TNF-α (Model 1) and with TNF-α (Model 2). Patients with the risk assessment model score of ≥ 3 appeared to be associated with an increased risk of heart failure.
OBJECTIVES: We aimed to construct and validate a risk assessment model to identify risk factors for heart failure (HF) in patients with Takayasu's arteritis (TAK). METHODS: Three hundred sixty-five patients with TAK were recruited in the East China Takayasu Arteritis Cohort from January 2012 to December 2019. Patients were assigned into training and validation sets following a 2:1 ratio according to the date of enrollment. Clinical characteristics were compared between heart failure (HF) and non-HF subgroups in the training set, and a risk assessment model for HF and its scoring algorithm was established based on logistic regression, which was tested in the validation set. RESULTS: Among total of 74 (20.27%) TAK patients exhibited HF, and 55 cases (74.32%) were in the training set. The risk factors for HF of TAK patients included onset age >38 years, serum tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α concentration >10 pg/ml, aortic valve involvement, coronary artery involvement, and pulmonary hypertension. We constructed the model without TNF-α (Model 1) and with TNF-α (Model 2). Patients in the training set with the score ≥ 3 appeared to be associated with an increased risk of HF with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.88 and 0.90 in Model 1 and Model 2 respectively. The AUC reached to 0.88 and 0.89 in the validation set that proved the accuracy of the model. CONCLUSIONS: We presented a risk assessment model of HF in TAK, which may help clinicians alert the complication of HF in the patients with specifically cardiac impairments. Key Points • Heart failure was not rare in Chinese Takayasu's arteritispatients, and there were approximately 20% of patients with heart failure in ECTA cohort. • Cardiac involvements on echocardiography include pathological valvular and atrioventricular abnormalities. • The onset age >38 years, serum tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α concentration >10 pg/ml, aortic valve involvement, coronary artery involvement, and pulmonary hypertension were risk factors for heart failure in Takayasu's arteritispatients. • We constructed the model without TNF-α (Model 1) and with TNF-α (Model 2). Patients with the risk assessment model score of ≥ 3 appeared to be associated with an increased risk of heart failure.
Authors: Francisco Paulin; Anastasia Secco; Federico Benavidez; Juan José Rodríguez Moncalvo; Orlando Gabriel Carballo; Fernanda Ingenito; Martin Eduardo Fernández; Agustina Cáceres; Fabian Caro; Patricia Sasaki; María Laura Alberti; Paola Orausclio; Augusto Riopedre; Santiago Rossi; María Celina de la Vega Journal: Adv Rheumatol Date: 2021-08-24