Literature DB >> 34012154

Estimated Effect of COVID-19 Lockdown on Skin Tumor Size and Survival: An Exponential Growth Model.

A Tejera-Vaquerizo1, J Cañueto2, A Toll3, J Santos-Juanes4, A Jaka5, C Ferrandiz6, O Sanmartín7, S Ribero8, D Moreno-Ramírez9, F Almazán10, M J Fuente5, S Podlipnik3, E Nagore7.   

Abstract

Background and objectives: Spain is in a situation of indefinite lockdown due to the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. One of the consequences of this lockdown is delays in medical and surgical procedures for common diseases. The aim of this study was to model the impact on survival of tumor growth caused by such delays in patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and melanoma. Material and methods: Multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study. We constructed an exponential growth model for both SCC and melanoma to estimate tumor growth between patient-reported onset and surgical excision at different time points.
Results: Data from 200 patients with SCC of the head and neck and 1000 patients with cutaneous melanoma were included. An exponential growth curve was calculated for each tumor type and we estimated tumor size after 1, 2, and 3 months of potential surgical delay. The proportion of patients with T3 SCC (diameter > 4 cm or thickness > 6 mm) increased from 41.5% (83 patients) in the initial study group to an estimated 58.5%, 70.5%, and 72% after 1, 2, and 3 months of delay. Disease-specific survival at 2, 5, and 10 years in patients whose surgery was delayed by 3 months decreased by 6.2%, 8.2%, and 5.2%, respectively. The proportion of patients with ultrathick melanoma (> 6 mm) increased from 6.9% in the initial study group to 21.9%, 30.2%, and 30.2% at 1, 2, and 3 months. Five- and 10-year disease-specific survival both decreased by 14.4% in patients treated after a potential delay of 3 months. Conclusions: In the absence of adequate diagnosis and treatment of SCC and melanoma in the current lockdown situation in Spain, we can expect to see to a considerable increase in large and thick SCCs and melanomas. Efforts must be taken to encourage self-examination and facilitate access to dermatologists in order to prevent further delays.
© 2020 Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. on behalf of AEDV.

Keywords:  COVID-19 virus disease; Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma; Early diagnosis; Lockdown; Melanoma; Prognosis

Mesh:

Year:  2020        PMID: 34012154      PMCID: PMC7502279          DOI: 10.1016/j.adengl.2020.09.008

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Actas Dermosifiliogr        ISSN: 0001-7310


  18 in total

1.  RATES OF GROWTH OF PULMONARY METASTASES AND HOST SURVIVAL.

Authors:  J S SPRATT; T L SPRATT
Journal:  Ann Surg       Date:  1964-02       Impact factor: 12.969

2.  Chronology of metastasis in cutaneous melanoma: growth rate model.

Authors:  Antonio Tejera-Vaquerizo; Eduardo Nagore; Juan J Meléndez; Norberto López-Navarro; Antonio Martorell-Calatayud; Enrique Herrera-Acosta; Victor Traves; Carlos Guillén; Enrique Herrera-Ceballos
Journal:  J Invest Dermatol       Date:  2012-01-05       Impact factor: 8.551

3.  Age as a prognostic factor in thick and ultrathick melanomas without lymph node metastasis.

Authors:  A Boada; A Tejera-Vaquerizo; S Ribero; S Puig; D Moreno-Ramírez; S Osella-Abate; P Cassoni; J Malvehy; S Podlipnik; C Requena; E Manrique-Silva; J J Rios-Martin; C Ferrándiz; E Nagore
Journal:  J Eur Acad Dermatol Venereol       Date:  2020-05-22       Impact factor: 6.166

4.  Comparison of Tumor Classifications for Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck in the 7th vs 8th Edition of the AJCC Cancer Staging Manual.

Authors:  Pritesh S Karia; Frederick C Morgan; Joseph A Califano; Chrysalyne D Schmults
Journal:  JAMA Dermatol       Date:  2018-02-01       Impact factor: 10.282

5.  Rapid growth rate is associated with poor prognosis in cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma.

Authors:  J Cañueto; J Martín-Vallejo; E Cardeñoso-Álvarez; E Fernández-López; J Pérez-Losada; C Román-Curto
Journal:  Clin Exp Dermatol       Date:  2018-05-13       Impact factor: 3.470

Review 6.  Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma: defining the high-risk variant.

Authors:  A Martorell-Calatayud; O Sanmartín Jimenez; J Cruz Mojarrieta; C Guillén Barona
Journal:  Actas Dermosifiliogr       Date:  2013-05-14

7.  Management of Cancer Surgery Cases During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Considerations.

Authors:  David L Bartlett; James R Howe; George Chang; Aimee Crago; Melissa Hogg; Giorgos Karakousis; Edward Levine; Ajay Maker; Eleftherios Mamounas; Kandace McGuire; Nipun Merchant; David Shibata; Vance Sohn; Carmen Solorzano; Kiran Turaga; Richard White; Anthony Yang; Sam Yoon
Journal:  Ann Surg Oncol       Date:  2020-04-08       Impact factor: 5.344

8.  Balancing the Effects of COVID-19 Against Potential Progression and Mortality in High-risk Prostate Cancer.

Authors:  Marcio Covas Moschovas; Maria Chiara Sighinolfi; Bernardo Rocco; Seetharam Bhat; Fikret Onol; Travis Rogers; Vipul Patel
Journal:  Eur Urol       Date:  2020-04-21       Impact factor: 20.096

9.  Decline of acute coronary syndrome admissions in Austria since the outbreak of COVID-19: the pandemic response causes cardiac collateral damage.

Authors:  Bernhard Metzler; Peter Siostrzonek; Ronald K Binder; Axel Bauer; Sebastian Johannes Reinstadler
Journal:  Eur Heart J       Date:  2020-05-14       Impact factor: 29.983

10.  The outbreak of Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused a worrying delay in the diagnosis of oral cancer in north-west Italy: The Turin Metropolitan Area experience.

Authors:  Paolo G Arduino; Davide Conrotto; Roberto Broccoletti
Journal:  Oral Dis       Date:  2020-05-11       Impact factor: 4.068

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