Dominik Rotter1, Philipp Doebler2, Florian Schmitz1. 1. Department of Psychology, University of Duisburg-Essen, Universitätsstraße 2, Essen, DE. 2. Statistical Methods in Social Sciences,, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund, DE.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, the German government and the sixteen German federal states issued a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to decelerate the spread of the so-called coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 virus) and, thus, prevent a collapse of the healthcare infrastructure. These measures comprised, among others, social distancing, the temporary closure of shops and schools, and a ban of large public gatherings and meetings with people not living in the same household. OBJECTIVE: It is fair to assume that the issued NPIs have heavily affected social life and psychological functioning. We therefore aimed to examine possible effects of this lockdown in conjunction with daily new infections and the state of the national economy on people's interests, motives, and other psychological states. METHODS: We derived 249 keywords from the Google Trends (GT) database tapping into 27 empirically and rationally selected psychological domains. To overcome issues with reliability and specificity of individual indicator variables, broad factors were derived by means of time series factor analysis (TSFA). All domains were subjected to a change point as well as a time series regression analysis with infection rates, NPIs, and state of economy as predictors. All keywords and analyses were preregistered prior to analysing. RESULTS: With the pandemic arriving in Germany, significant increases in people's search interests were observed in virtually all domains. While most of the changes were short-lasting, each had a distinguishable onset during the lockdown period. Regression analysis of the GT data confirmed pronounced autoregressive effects for the investigated variables while forecasting by means of the tested predictors daily new infections, NPIs, and the state of economy was moderate at best. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that people's interests, motives, and psychological states are heavily affected in times of crisis and lockdown. Specifically, disease- and virus-related domains (eg Pandemic disease, Symptoms) peaked early, whereas personal health strategies (eg Masks, Homeschooling) peaked later during the lockdown. Domains addressing social life and psychosocial functioning showed long-term increases in public interest. Renovation was the only domain to show a decrease in search interest with the onset of the lockdown. As changes in search behaviour are consistent over multiple domains, a GT analysis may provide information for policymakers on how to adapt and develop intervention, information, and prevention strategies, especially when NPIs are in effect.
BACKGROUND: In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, the German government and the sixteen German federal states issued a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to decelerate the spread of the so-called coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 virus) and, thus, prevent a collapse of the healthcare infrastructure. These measures comprised, among others, social distancing, the temporary closure of shops and schools, and a ban of large public gatherings and meetings with people not living in the same household. OBJECTIVE: It is fair to assume that the issued NPIs have heavily affected social life and psychological functioning. We therefore aimed to examine possible effects of this lockdown in conjunction with daily new infections and the state of the national economy on people's interests, motives, and other psychological states. METHODS: We derived 249 keywords from the Google Trends (GT) database tapping into 27 empirically and rationally selected psychological domains. To overcome issues with reliability and specificity of individual indicator variables, broad factors were derived by means of time series factor analysis (TSFA). All domains were subjected to a change point as well as a time series regression analysis with infection rates, NPIs, and state of economy as predictors. All keywords and analyses were preregistered prior to analysing. RESULTS: With the pandemic arriving in Germany, significant increases in people's search interests were observed in virtually all domains. While most of the changes were short-lasting, each had a distinguishable onset during the lockdown period. Regression analysis of the GT data confirmed pronounced autoregressive effects for the investigated variables while forecasting by means of the tested predictors daily new infections, NPIs, and the state of economy was moderate at best. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that people's interests, motives, and psychological states are heavily affected in times of crisis and lockdown. Specifically, disease- and virus-related domains (eg Pandemic disease, Symptoms) peaked early, whereas personal health strategies (eg Masks, Homeschooling) peaked later during the lockdown. Domains addressing social life and psychosocial functioning showed long-term increases in public interest. Renovation was the only domain to show a decrease in search interest with the onset of the lockdown. As changes in search behaviour are consistent over multiple domains, a GT analysis may provide information for policymakers on how to adapt and develop intervention, information, and prevention strategies, especially when NPIs are in effect.
Authors: Maria Chiara Maccarone; Hiroharu Kamioka; Sara Cheleschi; Sara Tenti; Stefano Masiero; Sinan Kardeş Journal: Environ Sci Pollut Res Int Date: 2021-06-29 Impact factor: 4.223