Stephanie J Kim1, Megan L Durr2,3, Jeanne A Darbinian4, Lori C Sakoda3,4, Charles J Meltzer3,5, Hasmik Arzumanyan3,6, Kevin H Wang2,3, Jonathan K Lin2,3, Deepak Gurushanthaiah2,3, Joan C Lo1,3,4,6. 1. Department of Medicine, Kaiser Permanente Oakland Medical Center, Oakland, CA. 2. Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Kaiser Permanente Oakland Medical Center, Oakland, CA. 3. The Permanente Medical Group, Oakland, CA. 4. Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, CA. 5. Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Kaiser Permanente Santa Rosa Medical Center, Santa Rosa, CA. 6. Department of Endocrinology, Kaiser Permanente Oakland Medical Center, Oakland, CA.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: The incidence of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) has increased in recent decades, but data from community-based settings are limited. This study characterizes PTC trends in a large, integrated healthcare system over 10 years. METHODS: The annual incidence of PTC (2006-2015) was examined among Kaiser Permanente Northern California adults aged 21 to 84 years using Cancer Registry data, including tumor size and stage. Incidence estimates were age-adjusted using the 2010 US Census. RESULTS: Of 2990 individuals newly diagnosed with PTC (76.8% female, 52.7% non-Hispanic White), 38.5% and 61.5% were aged < 45 and < 55 years, respectively. At diagnosis, 60.9% had PTC tumors ≤ 2 cm, 9.2% had tumors > 4 cm, and 66.1% had Stage I disease. The annual age-adjusted incidence of PTC increased from 9.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 8.1-10.7) to 14.5 (95% CI = 13.1-16.0) per 100,000 person-years and was higher for female patients than for male patients. Incidence tended to be higher in Asian/Pacific Islanders and lower in Black individuals. Increasing incidence was notable for Stage I disease (especially 2006-2012) and evident across a range of tumor sizes (3.0-4.6 for ≤ 1 cm, 2.5-3.5 for 1-2 cm, and 2.4-4.7 for 2-4 cm) but was modest for large tumors (0.9-1.5 for > 4 cm) per 100,000 person-years. DISCUSSION: Increasing PTC incidence over 10 years was most evident for tumors ≤ 4 cm and Stage I disease. Although these findings may be attributable to greater PTC detection, the increase across a range of tumor sizes suggests that PTC burden might also have increased.
INTRODUCTION: The incidence of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) has increased in recent decades, but data from community-based settings are limited. This study characterizes PTC trends in a large, integrated healthcare system over 10 years. METHODS: The annual incidence of PTC (2006-2015) was examined among Kaiser Permanente Northern California adults aged 21 to 84 years using Cancer Registry data, including tumor size and stage. Incidence estimates were age-adjusted using the 2010 US Census. RESULTS: Of 2990 individuals newly diagnosed with PTC (76.8% female, 52.7% non-Hispanic White), 38.5% and 61.5% were aged < 45 and < 55 years, respectively. At diagnosis, 60.9% had PTC tumors ≤ 2 cm, 9.2% had tumors > 4 cm, and 66.1% had Stage I disease. The annual age-adjusted incidence of PTC increased from 9.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 8.1-10.7) to 14.5 (95% CI = 13.1-16.0) per 100,000 person-years and was higher for female patients than for male patients. Incidence tended to be higher in Asian/Pacific Islanders and lower in Black individuals. Increasing incidence was notable for Stage I disease (especially 2006-2012) and evident across a range of tumor sizes (3.0-4.6 for ≤ 1 cm, 2.5-3.5 for 1-2 cm, and 2.4-4.7 for 2-4 cm) but was modest for large tumors (0.9-1.5 for > 4 cm) per 100,000 person-years. DISCUSSION: Increasing PTC incidence over 10 years was most evident for tumors ≤ 4 cm and Stage I disease. Although these findings may be attributable to greater PTC detection, the increase across a range of tumor sizes suggests that PTC burden might also have increased.
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