Qian Cheng1, Nilay Tanik Argon2, Christopher Scott Evans3, Yufeng Liu4, Timothy F Platts-Mills5, Serhan Ziya6. 1. Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), NC, USA. Electronic address: qcheng@email.unc.edu. 2. Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), NC, USA. Electronic address: nilay@email.unc.edu. 3. Department of Emergency Medicine, Clinical Informatics Fellowship Program, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA. Electronic address: Christopher.Evans2@unchealth.unc.edu. 4. Department of Genetics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), NC, USA; Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), NC, USA; Carolina Center for Genome Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), NC, USA; Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), NC, USA. Electronic address: yfliu@email.unc.edu. 5. Department of Emergency Medicine, UNC School of Medicine, NC, USA; Quantworks, Inc., Carrboro, NC, USA. Electronic address: tim.platts-mills@quantworks.com. 6. Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), NC, USA. Electronic address: ziya@email.unc.edu.
Abstract
STUDY OBJECTIVE: To develop a novel predictive model for emergency department (ED) hourly occupancy using readily available data at time of prediction with a time series analysis methodology. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of all ED visits from a large academic center during calendar year 2012 to predict ED hourly occupancy. Due to the time-of-day and day-of-week effects, a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with external regressor (SARIMAX) model was selected. For each hour of a day, a SARIMAX model was built to predict ED occupancy up to 4-h ahead. We compared the resulting model forecast accuracy and prediction intervals with previously studied time series forecasting methods. RESULTS: The study population included 65,132 ED visits at a large academic medical center during the year 2012. All adult ED visits during the first 265 days were used as a training dataset, while the remaining ED visits comprised the testing dataset. A SARIMAX model performed best with external regressors of current ED occupancy, average department-wide ESI, and ED boarding total at predicting up to 4-h-ahead ED occupancy (Mean Square Error (MSE) of 16.20, and 64.47 for 1-hr- and 4-h- ahead occupancy, respectively). Our 24-SARIMAX model outperformed other popular time series forecasting techniques, including a 60% improvement in MSE over the commonly used rolling average method, while maintaining similar prediction intervals. CONCLUSION: Accounting for current ED occupancy, average department-wide ESI, and boarding total, a 24-SARIMAX model was able to provide up to 4 h ahead predictions of ED occupancy with improved performance characteristics compared to other forecasting methods, including the rolling average. The prediction intervals generated by this method used data readily available in most EDs and suggest a promising new technique to forecast ED occupancy in real time.
STUDY OBJECTIVE: To develop a novel predictive model for emergency department (ED) hourly occupancy using readily available data at time of prediction with a time series analysis methodology. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of all ED visits from a large academic center during calendar year 2012 to predict ED hourly occupancy. Due to the time-of-day and day-of-week effects, a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with external regressor (SARIMAX) model was selected. For each hour of a day, a SARIMAX model was built to predict ED occupancy up to 4-h ahead. We compared the resulting model forecast accuracy and prediction intervals with previously studied time series forecasting methods. RESULTS: The study population included 65,132 ED visits at a large academic medical center during the year 2012. All adult ED visits during the first 265 days were used as a training dataset, while the remaining ED visits comprised the testing dataset. A SARIMAX model performed best with external regressors of current ED occupancy, average department-wide ESI, and ED boarding total at predicting up to 4-h-ahead ED occupancy (Mean Square Error (MSE) of 16.20, and 64.47 for 1-hr- and 4-h- ahead occupancy, respectively). Our 24-SARIMAX model outperformed other popular time series forecasting techniques, including a 60% improvement in MSE over the commonly used rolling average method, while maintaining similar prediction intervals. CONCLUSION: Accounting for current ED occupancy, average department-wide ESI, and boarding total, a 24-SARIMAX model was able to provide up to 4 h ahead predictions of ED occupancy with improved performance characteristics compared to other forecasting methods, including the rolling average. The prediction intervals generated by this method used data readily available in most EDs and suggest a promising new technique to forecast ED occupancy in real time.
Authors: Jalmari Tuominen; Francesco Lomio; Niku Oksala; Ari Palomäki; Jaakko Peltonen; Heikki Huttunen; Antti Roine Journal: BMC Med Inform Decis Mak Date: 2022-05-17 Impact factor: 3.298