Provincial Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Gasoline and Plug-in Electric Vehicles in China: Comparison from the Consumption-Based Electricity Perspective.

China has implemented strong incentives to promote the market penetration of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). In this study, we compare the well-to-wheels (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensities of PEVs with those of gasoline vehicles at the provincial level in the year 2017 by considering the heterogeneity in the consumption-based electricity mix and climate impacts on vehicle fuel economy. Results show a high variation of provincial WTW GHG emission intensities for battery electric vehicles (BEVs, 22-293 g CO2eq/km) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs, 82-298 g CO2eq/km) in contrast to gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs, 227-245 g CO2eq/km) and gasoline hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs, 141-164 g CO2eq/km). Due to the GHG-intensive coal-based electricity and cold weather, WTW GHG emission intensities of BEVs and PHEVs are higher than those of gasoline ICEVs in seven and ten northern provinces in China, respectively. WTW GHG emission intensities of gasoline HEVs, on the other hand, are lower in 18 and 26 provinces than those of BEVs and PHEVs, respectively. The analysis suggests that province-specific PEV and electric grid development policies should be considered for GHG emission reductions of on-road transportation in China.