André de Souza Melo1, Ana Iza Gomes da Penha Sobral2, Marcelo Luiz Monteiro Marinho1, Gisleia Benini Duarte1, Amanda Aires Vieira3, Marcos Felipe Falcão Sobral4. 1. Departamento de Economia, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, Avenida Dom Manoel de Medeiros, s/n - Dois Irmãos, Recife, PE, Brazil. 2. Departamento de Psicologia Cognitiva, Federal University of Pernambuco, Av. Prof. Moraes Rego, 1235 - Cidade Universitária, Recife, PE, 50670-901, Brazil. 3. Faculdade Boa Viagem, R. Jean Emile Favre, 422 - Ipsep, Recife, PE, 51190-450, Brazil. 4. Departamento de Economia, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, Avenida Dom Manoel de Medeiros, s/n - Dois Irmãos, Recife, PE, Brazil. marcos.sobral@ufrpe.br.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: To assess the impact of the social isolation index on the number of infections and deaths by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo (Brazil). METHODS: Daily isolation data, obtained through geolocation information by mobile phone, were evaluated together with the number of daily infections and deaths by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo. The study was conducted from February 26 to May 19, 2020. The data were modeled through the vector autoregression (VAR) model. RESULTS: The isolation index has an effect of approximately 5% in variation in the number of infections, and 7% in the number of deaths. The impulse response function (IRF) caused a drop of 0.15% in the number of new cases/day, and 0.17% in the number of deaths/day following a shock in the isolation index. For both cases, this effect occurred 1 day after the shock and stabilized after 10 periods. An increase of 1% in the isolation index led to a reduction of 6.91% in new cases and 6.90% in the number of deaths. The 30 cumulative day reduction reached 22.72% in terms of transmission and 35.39% for deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The social isolation index is related to deaths and infections from SARS-CoV-2. Although distancing measures are accompanied with impacts on the economy and the emergence of other morbidities, the benefits caused by the reduction in the speed of contagion are significant. The adoption of distancing measures has a substantial impact on the number of infected individuals and deaths by COVID-19.
BACKGROUND: To assess the impact of the social isolation index on the number of infections and deaths by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo (Brazil). METHODS: Daily isolation data, obtained through geolocation information by mobile phone, were evaluated together with the number of daily infections and deaths by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo. The study was conducted from February 26 to May 19, 2020. The data were modeled through the vector autoregression (VAR) model. RESULTS: The isolation index has an effect of approximately 5% in variation in the number of infections, and 7% in the number of deaths. The impulse response function (IRF) caused a drop of 0.15% in the number of new cases/day, and 0.17% in the number of deaths/day following a shock in the isolation index. For both cases, this effect occurred 1 day after the shock and stabilized after 10 periods. An increase of 1% in the isolation index led to a reduction of 6.91% in new cases and 6.90% in the number of deaths. The 30 cumulative day reduction reached 22.72% in terms of transmission and 35.39% for deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The social isolation index is related to deaths and infections from SARS-CoV-2. Although distancing measures are accompanied with impacts on the economy and the emergence of other morbidities, the benefits caused by the reduction in the speed of contagion are significant. The adoption of distancing measures has a substantial impact on the number of infected individuals and deaths by COVID-19.
Entities:
Keywords:
COVID-19; Quarantine; SARS-CoV-2; Social isolation
Authors: Adam J Kucharski; Timothy W Russell; Charlie Diamond; Yang Liu; John Edmunds; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo Journal: Lancet Infect Dis Date: 2020-03-11 Impact factor: 25.071