Dongzhen Chen1, Hua Lu2, Shengyang Zhang3, Jia Yin1, Xuena Liu1, Yixin Zhang3, Bingqin Dai3, Xiaomei Li4, Guoyong Ding5. 1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, No.619 Changcheng Road, Taian, 271016, Shandong Province, China. 2. Taian Centers for Diseases Prevention Control, Taian, 271000, Shandong Province, China. 3. Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, 250014, Shandong Province, China. 4. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, No.619 Changcheng Road, Taian, 271016, Shandong Province, China. xmli@sdfmu.edu.cn. 5. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, No.619 Changcheng Road, Taian, 271016, Shandong Province, China. dgy-153@163.com.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The effects of extreme temperature on infectious diseases are complex and far-reaching. There are few studies to access the relationship of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) with extreme temperature. The study aimed to identify whether there was association between extreme temperature and the reported morbidity of PTB in Shandong Province, China, from 2005 to 2016. METHODS: A generalized additive model (GAM) was firstly conducted to evaluate the relationship between daily reported incidence rate of PTB and extreme temperature events in the prefecture-level cities. Then, the effect estimates were pooled using meta-analysis at the provincial level. The fixed-effect model or random-effect model was selected based on the result of heterogeneity test. RESULTS: Among the 446,016 PTB reported cases, the majority of reported cases occurred in spring. The higher reported incidence rate areas were located in Liaocheng, Taian, Linyi and Heze. Extreme low temperature had an impact on the reported incidence of PTB in only one prefecture-level city, i.e., Binzhou (RR = 0.903, 95% CI: 0.817-0.999). While, extreme high temperature was found to have a positive effect on reported morbidity of PTB in Binzhou (RR = 0.924, 95% CI: 0.856-0.997) and Weihai (RR = 0.910, 95% CI: 0.843-0.982). Meta-analysis showed that extreme high temperature was associated with a decreased risk of PTB (RR = 0.982, 95% CI: 0.966-0.998). However, extreme low temperature was no relationship with the reported incidence of PTB. CONCLUSION: Our findings are suggested that extreme high temperature has significantly decreased the risk of PTB at the provincial levels. The findings have implications for developing strategies to response to climate change.
BACKGROUND: The effects of extreme temperature on infectious diseases are complex and far-reaching. There are few studies to access the relationship of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) with extreme temperature. The study aimed to identify whether there was association between extreme temperature and the reported morbidity of PTB in Shandong Province, China, from 2005 to 2016. METHODS: A generalized additive model (GAM) was firstly conducted to evaluate the relationship between daily reported incidence rate of PTB and extreme temperature events in the prefecture-level cities. Then, the effect estimates were pooled using meta-analysis at the provincial level. The fixed-effect model or random-effect model was selected based on the result of heterogeneity test. RESULTS: Among the 446,016 PTB reported cases, the majority of reported cases occurred in spring. The higher reported incidence rate areas were located in Liaocheng, Taian, Linyi and Heze. Extreme low temperature had an impact on the reported incidence of PTB in only one prefecture-level city, i.e., Binzhou (RR = 0.903, 95% CI: 0.817-0.999). While, extreme high temperature was found to have a positive effect on reported morbidity of PTB in Binzhou (RR = 0.924, 95% CI: 0.856-0.997) and Weihai (RR = 0.910, 95% CI: 0.843-0.982). Meta-analysis showed that extreme high temperature was associated with a decreased risk of PTB (RR = 0.982, 95% CI: 0.966-0.998). However, extreme low temperature was no relationship with the reported incidence of PTB. CONCLUSION: Our findings are suggested that extreme high temperature has significantly decreased the risk of PTB at the provincial levels. The findings have implications for developing strategies to response to climate change.
Authors: Nick Watts; Markus Amann; Nigel Arnell; Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson; Jessica Beagley; Kristine Belesova; Maxwell Boykoff; Peter Byass; Wenjia Cai; Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum; Stuart Capstick; Jonathan Chambers; Samantha Coleman; Carole Dalin; Meaghan Daly; Niheer Dasandi; Shouro Dasgupta; Michael Davies; Claudia Di Napoli; Paula Dominguez-Salas; Paul Drummond; Robert Dubrow; Kristie L Ebi; Matthew Eckelman; Paul Ekins; Luis E Escobar; Lucien Georgeson; Su Golder; Delia Grace; Hilary Graham; Paul Haggar; Ian Hamilton; Stella Hartinger; Jeremy Hess; Shih-Che Hsu; Nick Hughes; Slava Jankin Mikhaylov; Marcia P Jimenez; Ilan Kelman; Harry Kennard; Gregor Kiesewetter; Patrick L Kinney; Tord Kjellstrom; Dominic Kniveton; Pete Lampard; Bruno Lemke; Yang Liu; Zhao Liu; Melissa Lott; Rachel Lowe; Jaime Martinez-Urtaza; Mark Maslin; Lucy McAllister; Alice McGushin; Celia McMichael; James Milner; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Karyn Morrissey; Simon Munzert; Kris A Murray; Tara Neville; Maria Nilsson; Maquins Odhiambo Sewe; Tadj Oreszczyn; Matthias Otto; Fereidoon Owfi; Olivia Pearman; David Pencheon; Ruth Quinn; Mahnaz Rabbaniha; Elizabeth Robinson; Joacim Rocklöv; Marina Romanello; Jan C Semenza; Jodi Sherman; Liuhua Shi; Marco Springmann; Meisam Tabatabaei; Jonathon Taylor; Joaquin Triñanes; Joy Shumake-Guillemot; Bryan Vu; Paul Wilkinson; Matthew Winning; Peng Gong; Hugh Montgomery; Anthony Costello Journal: Lancet Date: 2020-12-02 Impact factor: 79.321