Severity and Duration of Acute Kidney Injury and Chronic Kidney Disease after Cardiac Surgery.

We aimed to evaluate whether the duration and stage of acute kidney injury (AKI) are associated with the occurrence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in patients undergoing cardiac or thoracic aortic surgery. A total of 2009 cases were reviewed. The patients with postoperative AKI stage 1 and higher stage were divided into transient (serum creatinine elevation ≤48 h) or persistent (>48 h) AKI, respectively. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values during three years after surgery were collected. Occurrence of new-onset CKD stage 3 or higher or all-cause mortality was determined as the primary outcome. Multivariable Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were performed. The Median follow-up of renal function after surgery was 32 months. The cumulative incidences of our primary outcome at one, two, and three years after surgery were 19.8, 23.7, and 26.1%. There was a graded significant association of AKI with new-onset CKD during three years after surgery, except for transient stage 1 AKI (persistent stage 1: HR 3.11, 95% CI 2.62-4.91; transient higher stage: HR 4.07, 95% CI 2.98-6.11; persistent higher stage: HR 13.36, 95% CI 8.22-18.72). There was a significant difference in survival between transient and persistent AKI at the same stage. During three years after cardiac surgery, there was a significant and graded association between AKI stages and the development of new-onset CKD, except for transient stage 1 AKI. This association was stronger when AKI lasted more than 48 h at the same stage. Both duration and severity of AKI provide prognostic value to predict the development of CKD.