Benan Musellim1, Seval Kul2, Pınar Ay3, Filiz Çağla Uyanusta Küçük4, Elif Dağlı5, Oya Itil6, Hasan Bayram7. 1. Turkish Thoracic Society, COVID-19 Task Force, İstanbul, Turkey. 2. Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, Gaziantep University School of Medicine, Gaziantep, Turkey. 3. Department of Public Health, Marmara University School of Medicine, İstanbul, Turkey. 4. Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Acıbadem Hospital, Ankara, Turkey. 5. Health Institute Association, Istanbul, Turkey. 6. Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Dokuz Eylül University School of Medicine, İzmir, Turkey. 7. Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Koç University School of Medicine, İstanbul, Turkey.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Epidemiological studies have shown that mortality owing to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be under-reported under different conditions. Excess mortality analysis is suggested as a useful tool in estimating the impact of the disease. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Mortality data between January 01 and May 18, 2020, were analyzed to evaluate the excess mortality owing to COVID-19 in Istanbul, the city most affected by the pandemic in Turkey. The average weekly percentage changes in the number of deaths in 4 previous years were compared with those in the year 2020 using excess mortality analysis. RESULTS: The number of deaths in Istanbul was significantly higher in 2020 (p=0.001), with a 10% weekly increase between the 10th and 15th weeks, which started to decrease until the 20th week. The excess mortality found during the study period was 4,084 deaths, higher than the officially reported COVID-19 mortality. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrated that mortality owing to COVID-19 could be higher than the official figures reported by health authorities.
OBJECTIVE: Epidemiological studies have shown that mortality owing to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be under-reported under different conditions. Excess mortality analysis is suggested as a useful tool in estimating the impact of the disease. MATERIAL AND METHODS:Mortality data between January 01 and May 18, 2020, were analyzed to evaluate the excess mortality owing to COVID-19 in Istanbul, the city most affected by the pandemic in Turkey. The average weekly percentage changes in the number of deaths in 4 previous years were compared with those in the year 2020 using excess mortality analysis. RESULTS: The number of deaths in Istanbul was significantly higher in 2020 (p=0.001), with a 10% weekly increase between the 10th and 15th weeks, which started to decrease until the 20th week. The excess mortality found during the study period was 4,084 deaths, higher than the officially reported COVID-19mortality. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrated that mortality owing to COVID-19 could be higher than the official figures reported by health authorities.