Yaoqin Hu1, Xiaojue Gong1, Liqi Shu2, Xian Zeng3, Huilong Duan3, Qinyu Luo1, Baihui Zhang1, Yaru Ji1, Xiaofeng Wang1, Qiang Shu1, Haomin Li4. 1. The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, China. 2. Rhode Island Hospital, Brown University, United States. 3. The College of Biomedical Engineering and Instrument Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China. 4. The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, China. Electronic address: hmli@zju.edu.cn.
Abstract
PURPOSE: We aimed to introduce an explainable machine learning technology to help clinicians understand the risk factors for neonatal postoperative mortality at different levels. METHODS: A total of 1481 neonatal surgeries performed between May 2016 and December 2019 at a children's hospital were included in this study. Perioperative variables, including vital signs during surgery, were collected and used to predict postoperative mortality. Several widely used machine learning methods were trained and evaluated on split datasets. The model with the best performance was explained by SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) at different levels. RESULTS: The random forest model achieved the best performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 in the validation set. TreeExplainer of SHAP was used to identify the risk factors for neonatal postoperative mortality. The explainable machine learning model not only explains the risk factors identified by traditional statistical analysis but also identifies additional risk factors. The visualization of feature contributions at different levels by SHAP makes the "black-box" machine learning model easily understood by clinicians and families. Based on this explanation, vital signs during surgery play an important role in eventual survival. CONCLUSIONS: The explainable machine learning model not only exhibited good performance in predicting neonatal surgical mortality but also helped clinicians understand each risk factor and each individual case.
PURPOSE: We aimed to introduce an explainable machine learning technology to help clinicians understand the risk factors for neonatal postoperative mortality at different levels. METHODS: A total of 1481 neonatal surgeries performed between May 2016 and December 2019 at a children's hospital were included in this study. Perioperative variables, including vital signs during surgery, were collected and used to predict postoperative mortality. Several widely used machine learning methods were trained and evaluated on split datasets. The model with the best performance was explained by SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) at different levels. RESULTS: The random forest model achieved the best performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 in the validation set. TreeExplainer of SHAP was used to identify the risk factors for neonatal postoperative mortality. The explainable machine learning model not only explains the risk factors identified by traditional statistical analysis but also identifies additional risk factors. The visualization of feature contributions at different levels by SHAP makes the "black-box" machine learning model easily understood by clinicians and families. Based on this explanation, vital signs during surgery play an important role in eventual survival. CONCLUSIONS: The explainable machine learning model not only exhibited good performance in predicting neonatal surgical mortality but also helped clinicians understand each risk factor and each individual case.