Migratory connectivity then and now: a northward shift in breeding origins of a long-distance migratory bird wintering in the tropics.

Temporal variation in the connectivity of populations of migratory animals has not been widely documented, despite having important repercussions for population ecology and conservation. Because the long-distance movements of migratory animals link ecologically distinct and geographically distant areas of the world, changes in the abundance and migratory patterns of species may reflect differential drivers of demographic trends acting over various spatial scales. Using stable hydrogen isotope analyses (δ2H) of feathers from historical museum specimens and contemporary samples obtained in the field, we provide evidence for an approximately 600 km northward shift over 45 years in the breeding origin of a species of songbird of major conservation concern (blackpoll warbler, Setophaga striata) wintering in the foothills of the eastern Andes of Colombia. Our finding mirrors predictions of range shifts for boreal-breeding species under warming climate scenarios and habitat loss in the temperate zone, and underscores likely drivers of widespread declines in populations of migratory birds. Our work also highlights the value of natural history collections to document the effects of global change on biodiversity.