Tianchen Zhang1, Sheng Ding1, Zhili Zeng1, Huijian Cheng1, Chengfeng Zhang1, Xiangqun Mao1, Huanhong Pan1, Guanghui Xia1, Daping Che2. 1. Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China. 2. Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China. chedaping2020@163.com.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: This paper aims to estimate the incubation period and serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 based on confirmed cases in Jiangxi Province of China and meta-analysis method. METHODOLOGY: Distributions of incubation period and serial interval of Jiangxi epidemic data were fitted by "fitdistrplus" package of R software, and the meta-analysis was conducted by "meta" package of R software. RESULTS: Based on the epidemic data of Jiangxi, we found the median days of incubation period and serial interval were 5.9 days [IQR: 3.8 - 8.6] and 5.7 days [IQR: 3.6 - 8.3], respectively. The median days of the infectivity period at pre-symptomatic was 1.7 days [IQR: 1.1 - 2.4]. The meta-analysis based on 64 papers showed the pooled means of the incubation period and serial interval were 6.25 days (95% CrI: 5.75 - 6.75) and 5.15 days (95% CrI: 4.73 - 5.57), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results contribute to a better understanding of COVID-19 and provide useful parameters for modelling the dynamics of disease transmission. The serial interval is shorter than the incubation period, which indicates that the patients are infectious at pre-symptomatic period, and isolation of detected cases alone is likely to be difficult to halt the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Copyright (c) 2021 Tianchen Zhang, Sheng Ding, Zhili Zeng, Huijian Cheng, Chengfeng Zhang, Xiangqun Mao , Huanhong Pan , Guanghui Xia, Daping Che.
INTRODUCTION: This paper aims to estimate the incubation period and serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 based on confirmed cases in Jiangxi Province of China and meta-analysis method. METHODOLOGY: Distributions of incubation period and serial interval of Jiangxi epidemic data were fitted by "fitdistrplus" package of R software, and the meta-analysis was conducted by "meta" package of R software. RESULTS: Based on the epidemic data of Jiangxi, we found the median days of incubation period and serial interval were 5.9 days [IQR: 3.8 - 8.6] and 5.7 days [IQR: 3.6 - 8.3], respectively. The median days of the infectivity period at pre-symptomatic was 1.7 days [IQR: 1.1 - 2.4]. The meta-analysis based on 64 papers showed the pooled means of the incubation period and serial interval were 6.25 days (95% CrI: 5.75 - 6.75) and 5.15 days (95% CrI: 4.73 - 5.57), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results contribute to a better understanding of COVID-19 and provide useful parameters for modelling the dynamics of disease transmission. The serial interval is shorter than the incubation period, which indicates that the patients are infectious at pre-symptomatic period, and isolation of detected cases alone is likely to be difficult to halt the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Copyright (c) 2021 Tianchen Zhang, Sheng Ding, Zhili Zeng, Huijian Cheng, Chengfeng Zhang, Xiangqun Mao , Huanhong Pan , Guanghui Xia, Daping Che.
Entities:
Keywords:
COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; incubation period; meta-analysis; serial interval
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