OBJECTIVE: The objective of this research was to construct and validate prognostic nomograms predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs). METHODS: We extracted 3787 patients with pNETs from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. Nomograms for estimating 3- and 5-year OS and CSS were first established. Then, we used Harrell's Concordance Index, calibration plots, and the area under receiver operating characteristic curve to evaluate the nomograms. The Kaplan-Meier curve was plotted to evaluate the different survival outcomes. RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis, age, grade, functional status, American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, and surgery were associated with OS and CSS. The established nomograms had good discriminative ability, with a Harrell's Concordance Index of 0.830 for OS and 0.855 for CSS. The calibration plots also revealed good agreement. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve values of the nomograms predicting 3- and 5-year OS and CSS rates were 0.836, 0.816 and 0.859, 0.841, respectively. In addition, Kaplan-Meier curve indicated that patients with higher risk had worse survival outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: We have proposed and validated the nomograms predicting OS and CSS of pNETs. They can be convenient individualized tools to facilitate clinical decision making.
OBJECTIVE: The objective of this research was to construct and validate prognostic nomograms predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs). METHODS: We extracted 3787 patients with pNETs from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. Nomograms for estimating 3- and 5-year OS and CSS were first established. Then, we used Harrell's Concordance Index, calibration plots, and the area under receiver operating characteristic curve to evaluate the nomograms. The Kaplan-Meier curve was plotted to evaluate the different survival outcomes. RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis, age, grade, functional status, American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, and surgery were associated with OS and CSS. The established nomograms had good discriminative ability, with a Harrell's Concordance Index of 0.830 for OS and 0.855 for CSS. The calibration plots also revealed good agreement. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve values of the nomograms predicting 3- and 5-year OS and CSS rates were 0.836, 0.816 and 0.859, 0.841, respectively. In addition, Kaplan-Meier curve indicated that patients with higher risk had worse survival outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: We have proposed and validated the nomograms predicting OS and CSS of pNETs. They can be convenient individualized tools to facilitate clinical decision making.