| Literature DB >> 33825947 |
Lucie Jurek1, Matias Baltazar2, Sheffali Gulati3, Neda Novakovic4, María Núñez5, Jeremy Oakley6, Anthony O'Hagan6.
Abstract
The lack of consensual measures to monitor core change in Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) or response to interventions leads to difficulty to prove intervention efficacy on ASD core symptoms. There are no universally accepted outcome measures developed for measuring changes in core symptoms. However, the CARS (Childhood Autism Rating Scale) is one of the outcomes recommended in the EMA Guideline on the clinical development of medicinal products for the treatment of ASD. Unfortunately, there is currently no consensus on the response definition for CARS among individuals with ASD. The aim of this elicitation process was to determine an appropriate definition of a response on the CARS2 scale for interventions in patients with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). An elicitation process was conducted following the Sheffield Elicitation Framework (SHELF). Five experts in the field of ASD and two experts in expert knowledge elicitation participated in an 1-day elicitation workshop. Experts in ASD were previously trained in the SHELF elicitation process and received a dossier of scientific evidence concerning the topic. The response definition was set as the mean clinically relevant improvement averaged over all patients, levels of functioning, age groups and clinicians. Based on the scientific evidence and expert judgment, a normal probability distribution was agreed to represent the state of knowledge of this response with expected value 4.03 and standard deviation 0.664. Considering the remaining uncertainty of the estimation and the available literature, a CARS-2 improvement of 4.5 points has been defined as a threshold to conclude to a response after an intervention. A CARS-2 improvement of 4.5 points could be used to evaluate interventions' meaningfulness in indivudals. This initial finding represents an important new benchmark and may aid decision makers in evaluating the efficacy of interventions in ASD.Entities:
Keywords: Autism Spectrum Disorder; CARS; Change; Expert knowledge elicitation; Measure; Response; SHELF
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 33825947 PMCID: PMC8024930 DOI: 10.1007/s00787-021-01772-z
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Eur Child Adolesc Psychiatry ISSN: 1018-8827 Impact factor: 5.349
Fig. 1Main steps in SHELF elicitation process
Fig. 2Individual elicited judgments from each expert on minimum clinically important change on CARS-2. The three colored sections represent parameter ranges judged to be equally likely by each expert. The dashed lines represent the experts’ medians. X represents the number of points on the CARS scale
Fig. 3Histogram and fitted beta distribution depicting the experts’ initial group judgments
Fig. 4The experts’ final judgments and agreed distribution
Proposition of what a minimum clinically significant improvement could be on CARS-2 in available scientific literature
| Authors | Study | Change definition | Score | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chez et al | Study assessing clinical efficacy following injection of secretin via alterations in the behavioral characteristics of children with ASD | Clinically significant change | 6 points on total score | Change of severity classification (from moderate to non-autistic) |
| Coniglio et al | RCT assessing the efficacy of a single injection of intravenous secretin on socialization and/or communication skills in children with ASD | Clinically significant improvement | 4.07 points | Use of reliable change index |
| Lemonnier et al | RCT evaluating the effect of bumetamide on neurobehavioral function in children and adolescent with ASD | Change used to calculate SS | 4 points | Calculation based on the assumption that the standard deviation for change in CARS was 4.5 |
| Nagaraj et al | RCT to assess the efficacy and safety of risperidone in young children with ASD | Change used to calculate SS | 20% improvement | Chosen after a pilot run to test the scales and after comparing the results from previous published studies in which the margin was generally found to be within this range |
| Our study | Minimum clinically relevant change | Mean of 4.03 points (SD 0.664) | Expert Knowledge Elicitation |
RCT randomized controlled trial, ASD autism spectrum disorder, SS Sample size