George N Ioannou1,2, Pamela Green2, Vincent S Fan3, Jason A Dominitz1, Ann M O'Hare4, Lisa I Backus5, Emily Locke2, McKenna C Eastment6, Thomas F Osborne7,8, Nikolas G Ioannou9, Kristin Berry2. 1. Division of Gastroenterology, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System, University of Washington, Seattle. 2. Research and Development, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Health Care System, Seattle, Washington. 3. Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System, University of Washington, Seattle. 4. Division of Nephrology, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System, University of Washington, Seattle. 5. Department of Veterans Affairs, Population Health Services, Palo Alto Healthcare System, Palo Alto, California. 6. Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System, University of Washington, Seattle. 7. Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Healthcare System, Palo Alto, California. 8. Department of Radiology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California. 9. Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle.
Abstract
Importance: A strategy that prioritizes individuals for SARS-CoV-2 vaccination according to their risk of SARS-CoV-2-related mortality would help minimize deaths during vaccine rollout. Objective: To develop a model that estimates the risk of SARS-CoV-2-related mortality among all enrollees of the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study used data from 7 635 064 individuals enrolled in the VA health care system as of May 21, 2020, to develop and internally validate a logistic regression model (COVIDVax) that predicted SARS-CoV-2-related death (n = 2422) during the observation period (May 21 to November 2, 2020) using baseline characteristics known to be associated with SARS-CoV-2-related mortality, extracted from the VA electronic health records (EHRs). The cohort was split into a training period (May 21 to September 30) and testing period (October 1 to November 2). Main Outcomes and Measures: SARS-CoV-2-related death, defined as death within 30 days of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. VA EHR data streams were imported on a data integration platform to demonstrate that the model could be executed in real-time to produce dashboards with risk scores for all current VA enrollees. Results: Of 7 635 064 individuals, the mean (SD) age was 66.2 (13.8) years, and most were men (7 051 912 [92.4%]) and White individuals (4 887 338 [64.0%]), with 1 116 435 (14.6%) Black individuals and 399 634 (5.2%) Hispanic individuals. From a starting pool of 16 potential predictors, 10 were included in the final COVIDVax model, as follows: sex, age, race, ethnicity, body mass index, Charlson Comorbidity Index, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, congestive heart failure, and Care Assessment Need score. The model exhibited excellent discrimination with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 85.3% (95% CI, 84.6%-86.1%), superior to the AUROC of using age alone to stratify risk (72.6%; 95% CI, 71.6%-73.6%). Assuming vaccination is 90% effective at preventing SARS-CoV-2-related death, using this model to prioritize vaccination was estimated to prevent 63.5% of deaths that would occur by the time 50% of VA enrollees are vaccinated, significantly higher than the estimate for prioritizing vaccination based on age (45.6%) or the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention phases of vaccine allocation (41.1%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study of all VA enrollees, prioritizing vaccination based on the COVIDVax model was estimated to prevent a large proportion of deaths expected to occur during vaccine rollout before sufficient herd immunity is achieved.
Importance: A strategy that prioritizes individuals for SARS-CoV-2 vaccination according to their risk of SARS-CoV-2-related mortality would help minimize deaths during vaccine rollout. Objective: To develop a model that estimates the risk of SARS-CoV-2-related mortality among all enrollees of the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study used data from 7 635 064 individuals enrolled in the VA health care system as of May 21, 2020, to develop and internally validate a logistic regression model (COVIDVax) that predicted SARS-CoV-2-related death (n = 2422) during the observation period (May 21 to November 2, 2020) using baseline characteristics known to be associated with SARS-CoV-2-related mortality, extracted from the VA electronic health records (EHRs). The cohort was split into a training period (May 21 to September 30) and testing period (October 1 to November 2). Main Outcomes and Measures: SARS-CoV-2-related death, defined as death within 30 days of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. VA EHR data streams were imported on a data integration platform to demonstrate that the model could be executed in real-time to produce dashboards with risk scores for all current VA enrollees. Results: Of 7 635 064 individuals, the mean (SD) age was 66.2 (13.8) years, and most were men (7 051 912 [92.4%]) and White individuals (4 887 338 [64.0%]), with 1 116 435 (14.6%) Black individuals and 399 634 (5.2%) Hispanic individuals. From a starting pool of 16 potential predictors, 10 were included in the final COVIDVax model, as follows: sex, age, race, ethnicity, body mass index, Charlson Comorbidity Index, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, congestive heart failure, and Care Assessment Need score. The model exhibited excellent discrimination with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 85.3% (95% CI, 84.6%-86.1%), superior to the AUROC of using age alone to stratify risk (72.6%; 95% CI, 71.6%-73.6%). Assuming vaccination is 90% effective at preventing SARS-CoV-2-related death, using this model to prioritize vaccination was estimated to prevent 63.5% of deaths that would occur by the time 50% of VA enrollees are vaccinated, significantly higher than the estimate for prioritizing vaccination based on age (45.6%) or the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention phases of vaccine allocation (41.1%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study of all VA enrollees, prioritizing vaccination based on the COVIDVax model was estimated to prevent a large proportion of deaths expected to occur during vaccine rollout before sufficient herd immunity is achieved.
Authors: George N Ioannou; Amy S B Bohnert; Ann M O'Hare; Edward J Boyko; Matthew L Maciejewski; Valerie A Smith; C Barrett Bowling; Elizabeth Viglianti; Theodore J Iwashyna; Denise M Hynes; Kristin Berry Journal: Ann Intern Med Date: 2022-10-11 Impact factor: 51.598
Authors: George N Ioannou; Jacqueline M Ferguson; Ann M O'Hare; Amy S B Bohnert; Lisa I Backus; Edward J Boyko; Thomas F Osborne; Matthew L Maciejewski; C Barrett Bowling; Denise M Hynes; Theodore J Iwashyna; Melody Saysana; Pamela Green; Kristin Berry Journal: PLoS Med Date: 2021-10-21 Impact factor: 11.613
Authors: Adeel A Butt; Victor B Talisa; Peng Yan; Obaid S Shaikh; Saad B Omer; Florian B Mayr Journal: Clin Infect Dis Date: 2022-08-24 Impact factor: 20.999
Authors: A M O'Hare; K Berry; V S Fan; K Crothers; M C Eastment; J A Dominitz; J A Shah; P Green; E Locke; G N Ioannou Journal: BMC Geriatr Date: 2021-07-06 Impact factor: 4.070