Machine learning with remote sensing data to locate uncontacted indigenous villages in Amazonia.

BACKGROUND: The world's last uncontacted indigenous societies in Amazonia have only intermittent and often hostile interactions with the outside world. Knowledge of their locations is essential for urgent protection efforts, but their extreme isolation, small populations, and semi-nomadic lifestyles make this a challenging task.
METHODS: Remote sensing technology with Landsat satellite sensors is a non-invasive methodology to track isolated indigenous populations through time. However, the small-scale nature of the deforestation signature left by uncontacted populations clearing villages and gardens has similarities to those made by contacted indigenous villages. Both contacted and uncontacted indigenous populations often live in proximity to one another making it difficult to distinguish the two in satellite imagery. Here we use machine learning techniques applied to remote sensing data with a training dataset of 500 contacted and 25 uncontacted villages.
RESULTS: Uncontacted villages generally have smaller cleared areas, reside at higher elevations, and are farther from populated places and satellite-detected lights at night. A random forest algorithm with an optimally-tuned detection cutoff has a leave-one-out cross-validated sensitivity and specificity of over 98%. A grid search around known uncontacted villages led us to identify three previously-unknown villages using predictions from the random forest model. Our efforts can improve policies toward isolated populations by providing better near real-time knowledge of their locations and movements in relation to encroaching loggers, settlers, and other external threats to their survival. ©2019 Walker and Hamilton.