How well has economic strategy changed CO2 emissions? Evidence from China's largest emission province.

In recent years, Shandong Province became one of China's largest carbon emitters; however, existing studies failed to capture the recent trends and the key driving factors behind it at the city level. In this study, we computed the city-level CO2 emission by employing accounting methods and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to provide a holistic picture and measure the contributing factors CO2 emissions across 16 cities in Shandong Province during 2010-2018. Research outcomes indicate that Shandong's CO2 emissions showed an increasing trend during 2010-2018, except in 2013. Shandong Province's GDP per capita and population size promote energy-related CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2018. Energy intensity is the main driving force behind Shandong's significant CO2 emission growth, followed by the energy consumption structure. Emission intensity and regional structure partly offset the CO2 emission increase. Industrial structure is the most important driving factor in reducing emissions; however, its emission reduction effect is not stable in some cities and sectors, especially for the nonmetal and metal industry, petroleum and chemical industry, and energy sector. Dongying is the top emitter across Shandong from 2010 to 2018. Its emissions mainly come from the petroleum and chemical industry. The largest driving factors are the energy intensity and industrial structure. Investigating CO2 emissions at the city level yields a strong recommendation that Shandong Province's regions cooperate to improve development patterns.