Stephanie J Salyer1, Justin Maeda2, Senga Sembuche2, Yenew Kebede2, Akhona Tshangela2, Mohamed Moussif3, Chikwe Ihekweazu4, Natalie Mayet5, Ebba Abate6, Ahmed Ogwell Ouma2, John Nkengasong2. 1. Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Division of Global Health Protection, Center for Global Health, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA. Electronic address: stephanies@africa-union.org. 2. Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. 3. Ministry of Health, Casablanca Airport, Casablanca, Morocco. 4. Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, Abuja, Nigeria. 5. National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa. 6. Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Although the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic progressed more slowly in Africa than the rest of the world, by December, 2020, the second wave appeared to be much more aggressive with many more cases. To date, the pandemic situation in all 55 African Union (AU) Member States has not been comprehensively reviewed. We aimed to evaluate reported COVID-19 epidemiology data to better understand the pandemic's progression in Africa. METHODS: We did a cross-sectional analysis between Feb 14 and Dec 31, 2020, using COVID-19 epidemiological, testing, and mitigation strategy data reported by AU Member States to assess trends and identify the response and mitigation efforts at the country, regional, and continent levels. We did descriptive analyses on the variables of interest including cumulative and weekly incidence rates, case fatality ratios (CFRs), tests per case ratios, growth rates, and public health and social measures in place. FINDINGS: As of Dec 31, 2020, African countries had reported 2 763 421 COVID-19 cases and 65 602 deaths, accounting for 3·4% of the 82 312 150 cases and 3·6% of the 1 798 994 deaths reported globally. Nine of the 55 countries accounted for more than 82·6% (2 283 613) of reported cases. 18 countries reported CFRs greater than the global CFR (2·2%). 17 countries reported test per case ratios less than the recommended ten to 30 tests per case ratio range. At the peak of the first wave in Africa in July, 2020, the mean daily number of new cases was 18 273. As of Dec 31, 2020, 40 (73%) countries had experienced or were experiencing their second wave of cases with the continent reporting a mean of 23 790 daily new cases for epidemiological week 53. 48 (96%) of 50 Member States had five or more stringent public health and social measures in place by April 15, 2020, but this number had decreased to 36 (72%) as of Dec 31, 2020, despite an increase in cases in the preceding month. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis showed that the African continent had a more severe second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic than the first, and highlights the importance of examining multiple epidemiological variables down to the regional and country levels over time. These country-specific and regional results informed the implementation of continent-wide initiatives and supported equitable distribution of supplies and technical assistance. Monitoring and analysis of these data over time are essential for continued situational awareness, especially as Member States attempt to balance controlling COVID-19 transmission with ensuring stable economies and livelihoods. FUNDING: None.
BACKGROUND: Although the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic progressed more slowly in Africa than the rest of the world, by December, 2020, the second wave appeared to be much more aggressive with many more cases. To date, the pandemic situation in all 55 African Union (AU) Member States has not been comprehensively reviewed. We aimed to evaluate reported COVID-19 epidemiology data to better understand the pandemic's progression in Africa. METHODS: We did a cross-sectional analysis between Feb 14 and Dec 31, 2020, using COVID-19 epidemiological, testing, and mitigation strategy data reported by AU Member States to assess trends and identify the response and mitigation efforts at the country, regional, and continent levels. We did descriptive analyses on the variables of interest including cumulative and weekly incidence rates, case fatality ratios (CFRs), tests per case ratios, growth rates, and public health and social measures in place. FINDINGS: As of Dec 31, 2020, African countries had reported 2 763 421 COVID-19 cases and 65 602 deaths, accounting for 3·4% of the 82 312 150 cases and 3·6% of the 1 798 994 deaths reported globally. Nine of the 55 countries accounted for more than 82·6% (2 283 613) of reported cases. 18 countries reported CFRs greater than the global CFR (2·2%). 17 countries reported test per case ratios less than the recommended ten to 30 tests per case ratio range. At the peak of the first wave in Africa in July, 2020, the mean daily number of new cases was 18 273. As of Dec 31, 2020, 40 (73%) countries had experienced or were experiencing their second wave of cases with the continent reporting a mean of 23 790 daily new cases for epidemiological week 53. 48 (96%) of 50 Member States had five or more stringent public health and social measures in place by April 15, 2020, but this number had decreased to 36 (72%) as of Dec 31, 2020, despite an increase in cases in the preceding month. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis showed that the African continent had a more severe second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic than the first, and highlights the importance of examining multiple epidemiological variables down to the regional and country levels over time. These country-specific and regional results informed the implementation of continent-wide initiatives and supported equitable distribution of supplies and technical assistance. Monitoring and analysis of these data over time are essential for continued situational awareness, especially as Member States attempt to balance controlling COVID-19 transmission with ensuring stable economies and livelihoods. FUNDING: None.
Authors: Duncan Chanda; Jonas Z Hines; Megumi Itoh; Sombo Fwoloshi; Peter A Minchella; Khozya D Zyambo; Suilanji Sivile; Davies Kampamba; Bob Chirwa; Raphael Chanda; Katongo Mutengo; Mazinga F Kayembe; Webster Chewe; Peter Chipimo; Aggrey Mweemba; Simon Agolory; Lloyd B Mulenga Journal: Open Forum Infect Dis Date: 2022-09-11 Impact factor: 4.423
Authors: Mohamed Bailor Barrie; Sulaiman Lakoh; J Daniel Kelly; Joseph Sam Kanu; James Squire; Zikan Koroma; Silleh Bah; Osman Sankoh; Abdulai Brima; Rashid Ansumana; Sarah A Goldberg; Smit Chitre; Chidinma Osuagwu; Justin Maeda; Bernard Barekye; Tamuno-Wari Numbere; Mohammed Abdulaziz; Anthony Mounts; Curtis Blanton; Tushar Singh; Mohamed Samai; Mohamed A Vandi; Eugene T Richardson Journal: medRxiv Date: 2021-07-05