Jamie S Sanderlin1, Jessie D Golding2, Taylor Wilcox2, Daniel H Mason2, Kevin S McKelvey2, Dean E Pearson3,4, Michael K Schwartz2. 1. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 2500 S. Pine Knoll Dr., Flagstaff, AZ, USA. jamie.l.sanderlin@usda.gov. 2. USDA Forest Service, National Genomics Center for Wildlife and Fish Conservation, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT, USA. 3. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT, USA. 4. Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: We evaluated whether occupancy modeling, an approach developed for detecting rare wildlife species, could overcome inherent accuracy limitations associated with rapid disease tests to generate fast, accurate, and affordable SARS-CoV-2 prevalence estimates. Occupancy modeling uses repeated sampling to estimate probability of false negative results, like those linked to rapid tests, for generating unbiased prevalence estimates. METHODS: We developed a simulation study to estimate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence using rapid, low-sensitivity, low-cost tests and slower, high-sensitivity, higher cost tests across a range of disease prevalence and sampling strategies. RESULTS: Occupancy modeling overcame the low sensitivity of rapid tests to generate prevalence estimates comparable to more accurate, slower tests. Moreover, minimal repeated sampling was required to offset low test sensitivity at low disease prevalence (0.1%), when rapid testing is most critical for informing disease management. CONCLUSIONS: Occupancy modeling enables the use of rapid tests to provide accurate, affordable, real-time estimates of the prevalence of emerging infectious diseases like SARS-CoV-2.
BACKGROUND: We evaluated whether occupancy modeling, an approach developed for detecting rare wildlife species, could overcome inherent accuracy limitations associated with rapid disease tests to generate fast, accurate, and affordable SARS-CoV-2 prevalence estimates. Occupancy modeling uses repeated sampling to estimate probability of false negative results, like those linked to rapid tests, for generating unbiased prevalence estimates. METHODS: We developed a simulation study to estimate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence using rapid, low-sensitivity, low-cost tests and slower, high-sensitivity, higher cost tests across a range of disease prevalence and sampling strategies. RESULTS: Occupancy modeling overcame the low sensitivity of rapid tests to generate prevalence estimates comparable to more accurate, slower tests. Moreover, minimal repeated sampling was required to offset low test sensitivity at low disease prevalence (0.1%), when rapid testing is most critical for informing disease management. CONCLUSIONS: Occupancy modeling enables the use of rapid tests to provide accurate, affordable, real-time estimates of the prevalence of emerging infectious diseases like SARS-CoV-2.
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