Zhihao Lv1, Yuqi Liang2, Huaxi Liu3, Delong Mo4. 1. Proctology Department, Zhongshan Hospital Affiliated to Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, No. 3 Kangxin Road, West District, Zhongshan, 528400, Guangdong, People's Republic of China. smulzh@126.com. 2. Science and Technology Innovation Center, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China. 3. College of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China. 4. Proctology Department, Zhongshan Hospital Affiliated to Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, No. 3 Kangxin Road, West District, Zhongshan, 528400, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: It remains controversial whether patients with Stage II colon cancer would benefit from chemotherapy after radical surgery. This study aims to assess the real effectiveness of chemotherapy in patients with stage II colon cancer undergoing radical surgery and to construct survival prediction models to predict the survival benefits of chemotherapy. METHODS: Data for stage II colon cancer patients with radical surgery were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Propensity score matching (1:1) was performed according to receive or not receive chemotherapy. Competitive risk regression models were used to assess colon cancer cause-specific death (CSD) and non-colon cancer cause-specific death (NCSD). Survival prediction nomograms were constructed to predict overall survival (OS) and colon cancer cause-specific survival (CSS). The predictive abilities of the constructed models were evaluated by the concordance indexes (C-indexes) and calibration curves. RESULTS: A total of 25,110 patients were identified, 21.7% received chemotherapy, and 78.3% were without chemotherapy. A total of 10,916 patients were extracted after propensity score matching. The estimated 3-year overall survival rates of chemotherapy were 0.7% higher than non- chemotherapy. The estimated 5-year and 10-year overall survival rates of non-chemotherapy were 1.3 and 2.1% higher than chemotherapy, respectively. Survival prediction models showed good discrimination (the C-indexes between 0.582 and 0.757) and excellent calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Chemotherapy improves the short-term (43 months) survival benefit of stage II colon cancer patients who received radical surgery. Survival prediction models can be used to predict OS and CSS of patients receiving chemotherapy as well as OS and CSS of patients not receiving chemotherapy and to make individualized treatment recommendations for stage II colon cancer patients who received radical surgery.
BACKGROUND: It remains controversial whether patients with Stage II colon cancer would benefit from chemotherapy after radical surgery. This study aims to assess the real effectiveness of chemotherapy in patients with stage II colon cancer undergoing radical surgery and to construct survival prediction models to predict the survival benefits of chemotherapy. METHODS: Data for stage II colon cancerpatients with radical surgery were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Propensity score matching (1:1) was performed according to receive or not receive chemotherapy. Competitive risk regression models were used to assess colon cancer cause-specific death (CSD) and non-colon cancer cause-specific death (NCSD). Survival prediction nomograms were constructed to predict overall survival (OS) and colon cancer cause-specific survival (CSS). The predictive abilities of the constructed models were evaluated by the concordance indexes (C-indexes) and calibration curves. RESULTS: A total of 25,110 patients were identified, 21.7% received chemotherapy, and 78.3% were without chemotherapy. A total of 10,916 patients were extracted after propensity score matching. The estimated 3-year overall survival rates of chemotherapy were 0.7% higher than non- chemotherapy. The estimated 5-year and 10-year overall survival rates of non-chemotherapy were 1.3 and 2.1% higher than chemotherapy, respectively. Survival prediction models showed good discrimination (the C-indexes between 0.582 and 0.757) and excellent calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Chemotherapy improves the short-term (43 months) survival benefit of stage II colon cancerpatients who received radical surgery. Survival prediction models can be used to predict OS and CSS of patients receiving chemotherapy as well as OS and CSS of patients not receiving chemotherapy and to make individualized treatment recommendations for stage II colon cancerpatients who received radical surgery.
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