Improving reconstructive surgery design using Gaussian process surrogates to capture material behavior uncertainty.

To produce functional, aesthetically natural results, reconstructive surgeries must be planned to minimize stress as excessive loads near wounds have been shown to produce pathological scarring and other complications (Gurtner et al., 2011). Presently, stress cannot easily be measured in the operating room. Consequently, surgeons rely on intuition and experience (Paul et al., 2016; Buchanan et al., 2016). Predictive computational tools are ideal candidates for surgery planning. Finite element (FE) simulations have shown promise in predicting stress fields on large skin patches and in complex cases, helping to identify potential regions of complication. Unfortunately, these simulations are computationally expensive and deterministic (Lee et al., 2018a). However, running a few, well selected FE simulations allows us to create Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models of local cutaneous flaps that are computationally efficient and able to predict stress and strain for arbitrary material parameters. Here, we create GP surrogates for the advancement, rotation, and transposition flaps. We then use the predictive capability of these surrogates to perform a global sensitivity analysis, ultimately showing that fiber direction has the most significant impact on strain field variations. We then perform an optimization to determine the optimal fiber direction for each flap for three different objectives driven by clinical guidelines (Leedy et al., 2005; Rohrer and Bhatia, 2005). While material properties are not controlled by the surgeon and are actually a source of uncertainty, the surgeon can in fact control the orientation of the flap with respect to the skin's relaxed tension lines, which are associated with the underlying fiber orientation (Borges, 1984). Therefore, fiber direction is the only material parameter that can be optimized clinically. The optimization task relies on the efficiency of the GP surrogates to calculate the expected cost of different strategies when the uncertainty of other material parameters is included. We propose optimal flap orientations for the three cost functions and that can help in reducing stress resulting from the surgery and ultimately reduce complications associated with excessive mechanical loading near wounds.