Jonathan P Law1,2, Richard Borrows2, David McNulty3, Adnan Sharif2, Charles J Ferro4,5. 1. Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK. 2. Department of Renal Medicine, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, B15 2GW, UK. 3. Department of Medical Informatics, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, B15 2GW, UK. 4. Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK. charles.ferro@uhb.nhs.uk. 5. Department of Renal Medicine, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, B15 2GW, UK. charles.ferro@uhb.nhs.uk.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Improved recognition of factors influencing graft survival has led to better short-term kidney transplant outcomes. However, efforts to prevent long-term graft decline and improve graft survival have seen more modest improvements. The adoption of electronic health records has enabled better recording and identification of donor-recipient factors through the use of modern statistical techniques. We have previously shown in a prevalent renal transplant population that episodes of rapid deterioration are associated with graft loss. METHODS: Estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) between 3 and 27 months after transplantation were collected from 310 kidney transplant recipients. We utilised a Bayesian approach to estimate the most likely eGFR trajectory as a smooth curve from an average of 10,000 Monte Carlo samples. The probability of having an episode of rapid deterioration (decline greater than 5 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year in any 1-month period) was calculated. Graft loss and mortality data was collected over a median follow-up period of 8 years. Factors associated with having an episode of rapid deterioration and associations with long-term graft loss were explored. RESULTS: In multivariable Cox Proportional Hazard analysis, a probability greater than 0.8 of rapid deterioration was associated with long-term death-censored graft loss (Hazard ratio 2.17; 95% Confidence intervals [CI] 1.04-4.55). In separate multivariable logistic regression models, cytomegalovirus (CMV) serostatus donor positive to recipient positive (Odds ratio [OR] 3.82; 95%CI 1.63-8.97), CMV donor positive (OR 2.06; 95%CI 1.15-3.68), and CMV recipient positive (OR 2.03; 95%CI 1.14-3.60) were associated with having a greater than 0.8 probability of an episode of rapid deterioration. CONCLUSIONS: Early episodes of rapid deterioration are associated with long-term death-censored graft loss and are associated with cytomegalovirus seropositivity. Further study is required to better manage these potentially modifiable risks factors and improve long-term graft survival.
BACKGROUND: Improved recognition of factors influencing graft survival has led to better short-term kidney transplant outcomes. However, efforts to prevent long-term graft decline and improve graft survival have seen more modest improvements. The adoption of electronic health records has enabled better recording and identification of donor-recipient factors through the use of modern statistical techniques. We have previously shown in a prevalent renal transplant population that episodes of rapid deterioration are associated with graft loss. METHODS: Estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) between 3 and 27 months after transplantation were collected from 310 kidney transplant recipients. We utilised a Bayesian approach to estimate the most likely eGFR trajectory as a smooth curve from an average of 10,000 Monte Carlo samples. The probability of having an episode of rapid deterioration (decline greater than 5 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year in any 1-month period) was calculated. Graft loss and mortality data was collected over a median follow-up period of 8 years. Factors associated with having an episode of rapid deterioration and associations with long-term graft loss were explored. RESULTS: In multivariable Cox Proportional Hazard analysis, a probability greater than 0.8 of rapid deterioration was associated with long-term death-censored graft loss (Hazard ratio 2.17; 95% Confidence intervals [CI] 1.04-4.55). In separate multivariable logistic regression models, cytomegalovirus (CMV) serostatus donor positive to recipient positive (Odds ratio [OR] 3.82; 95%CI 1.63-8.97), CMV donor positive (OR 2.06; 95%CI 1.15-3.68), and CMV recipient positive (OR 2.03; 95%CI 1.14-3.60) were associated with having a greater than 0.8 probability of an episode of rapid deterioration. CONCLUSIONS: Early episodes of rapid deterioration are associated with long-term death-censored graft loss and are associated with cytomegalovirus seropositivity. Further study is required to better manage these potentially modifiable risks factors and improve long-term graft survival.
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