| Literature DB >> 33732750 |
Youngji Jo1, Lise Jamieson2, Ijeoma Edoka3, Lawrence Long2,4, Sheetal Silal5,6, Juliet R C Pulliam7, Harry Moultrie8, Ian Sanne2, Gesine Meyer-Rath2,4, Brooke E Nichols2,4.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Dexamethasone and remdesivir have the potential to reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID)-related mortality or recovery time, but their cost-effectiveness in countries with limited intensive care resources is unknown.Entities:
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; cost-effectiveness; dexamethasone; hospital bed capacity; intensive care; mathematical model; remdesivir
Year: 2021 PMID: 33732750 PMCID: PMC7928624 DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofab040
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Open Forum Infect Dis ISSN: 2328-8957 Impact factor: 3.835
Comparison Between Remdesivir and Dexamethasone as COVID-19 Treatment in South Africa
| Remdesivir | Dexamethasone | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Regimen [ | Antiviral: 200-mg IV loading dose followed by 100 mg IV daily for up to 5 days for patients who are hospitalized | Steroid: 6 mg PO/IV for up to 10 days for patients with an oxygen requirement and/or requiring mechanical ventilation | |
| Clinical trial [ | WHO Solidarity Trial; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) Clinical Trial | Oxford RECOVERY trial | |
| Clinical outcome [ | Median time to recovery | From 10 (9–11) days in standard care to 15 (13–18) days with remdesivir | N/A |
| Overall | RR, 0.95 (HR, 0.81–1.11) | RR, 0.83 (95% CI, 0.74−0.92) | |
| Patients receiving high-flow oxygen or noninvasive mechanical ventilation | RR, 0.86 (HR, 0.67–1.11)a | RR, 0.80 (95% CI, 0.70–0.92)a | |
| Patients receiving mechanical ventilation | RR, 1.20 (HR, 0.80–1.80) | RR, 0.65 (95% CI, 0.51–0.82)a | |
| Availability [ | Possibly in short supply | Currently in market | |
| Any adverse events [ | Remdesivir vs placebo: 66% vs 64% for any group, 8% vs 14% for patients receiving oxygen | N/A |
Abbreviations: COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; HR, hazard ratio; IV, intravenous; NIAID, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; PO, oral; RR, relative risk; WHO, World Health Organization.
aMortality reduction rates used for remdesivir and dexamethasone in the model.
Key Input Parameters
| Patient Disease Status in ICU | Base | Low | High | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % of patients requiring mechanical ventilation | 42 | 34 | 49 | Triangular | [ |
| Days of hospitalization for nonventilated patients | 15 | 5 | 18 | Triangular | |
| Days of hospitalization for ventilated patients | 19 | 13 | 32 | Triangular | |
| Efficacy | Base | Low | High | Distribution | Source |
| Reduced days of hospitalization with remdesivir (from 15 days to 10 days) | 5 | 1 | 9 | Triangular | [ |
| Mortality if those additional patients receive ICU care, % | 50 | 40 | 85 | Beta | [ |
| Mortality if those additional patients do not receive ICU care, % | 90 | 85 | 100 | Beta | [ |
| Mortality rate reduction for earlier stage (nonventilated) patients due to remdesivir, % | 0 | 0 | 70 | Beta | [ |
| Mortality rate reduction for later stage (ventilated) patients due to dexamethasone, % | 35 | 18 | 49 | Beta | [ |
| Mortality rate reduction for earlier stage (nonventilated) patients due to dexamethasone, % | 20 | 8 | 30 | Beta | [ |
| Cost inputs | USD | Low | High | Distribution | Source |
| Health system operation cost in ICU per person day, $ | 1128 | 665 | 1172 | Gamma | [ |
| Cost of remdesivir regimen (200-mg IV loading dose followed by 100 mg IV daily for a maximum of 5 days), $ | 330 | 99 | 400 | Gamma | [ |
| Cost of dexamethasone regimen (6 mg PO/IV for up to 10 days), $ | 31 | 16 | 47 | Gamma | [ |
Abbreviations: COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; ICU, intensive care unit; IV, intravenous; PO, oral.
Total Costs, Health Outcome, and Incremental Cost-effectiveness Ratios of COVID-19 Treatment Scenarios in South Africa From August 2020 to January 2021 (With 95% Uncertainty Ranges Reported as the 2.5th and 97.5th Percentiles of the Corresponding Distributions)
| Deaths Averteda | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenarios | Total Costs, in Thousands USD | Incremental Cost, in Thousands USD (Ref: Standard Care) | Remdesivir | Dexamethasone | Total | Cost per Death Averted | |
| Reference: standard care | 83 937 (43 612 to 104 632) | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | |
| 1 | Remdesivir for nonventilated patients & dexamethasone for ventilated patients | 69 346 (41 327 to 99 623) | Cost savings: –14 591 (–59 027 to 29 878) | 26 (21 to 1497) | 382 (140 to 679) | 408 (229 to 1891) | Cost saving |
| 2 | Dexamethasone for nonventilated & ventilated patients | 84 096 (53 093 to 119 164) | Cost increase: 159 (61 to 307) | n/a | 689 (330 to 1118) | 689 (330 to 1118) | 231 (80 to 647) |
| 3 | Remdesivir for nonventilated patients (58%) only | 69 279 (41 301 to 99 492) | Cost savings: –14 657 (–59 087 to 29 778) | 26 (21 to 1497) | n/a | 26 (21 to 1497) | Cost saving |
| 4 | Dexamethasone for ventilated patients (42%) only | 84 003 (53 058 to 118 988) | Cost increase: 67 (26 to 130) | n/a | 382 (140 to 679) | 382 (140 to 679) | 174 (59 to 555) |
Abbreviations: COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; ICU, intensive care unit.
aEach scenario is compared with standard care. The number represents death averted by remdesivir assuming 0% reduction in mortality. If we assume 30% reduction in mortality of remdesivir, the total number of deaths averted by scenario 1 (dexamethasone for ventilated patients & remdesivir for nonventilated patients) would be 882 (averting 382 deaths by dexamethasone and 500 deaths by remdesivir due to decreasing the average length of stay of patients when ICU capacity is expected to be breached (474) and drug efficacy (26). Accordingly, the total number of deaths averted by scenario 4 (remdesivir for nonventilated patients; 58%) would only be 500.
Figure 1.One-way sensitivity analyses of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio assessing the use of remdesivir for nonventilated intensive care unit patients and dexamethasone for ventilated patients compared with standard care (assuming 0% efficacy of remdesivir in directly reducing mortality). Abbreviation: ICU, intensive care unit.
Figure 2.Three-way sensitivity analyses of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio assessing the use of remdesivir for nonventilated intensive care unit (ICU) patients and dexamethasone for ventilated patients compared with standard care. This heat map displays the incremental cost-effectiveness (red as an incremental cost per death averted; green as an incremental cost saving per death averted) of the scenario of remdesivir and dexamethasone compared with standard care (A) and the scenario of dexamethasone use in ventilated and nonventilated patients compared with standard care (B). Each panel corresponds to a relative epidemic condition (the extent of ICU capacity is breached across 6 months/9 provinces: full [ICUs always at capacity], base [ICUs at capacity as per modeled results], low [ICUs never at capacity]). In (A), each column represents a different length of reduced ICU stay by remdesivir and each row depicts a different remdesivir efficacy (0%, 30%, 70%). In (B), each column represents a different dexamethasone efficacy (18%, 35%, 49%), and each row depicts a different dexamethasone cost ($16, $31, $47).