OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in Western Europe. METHODS: Data (official statistics) on the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 at the start of the outbreak (before any confinement rules were declared) were retrieved in the 15 largest countries in Western Europe, allowing us to estimate the exponential growth rate of the disease. The rate was then combined with estimates of the distribution of the generation interval as reconstructed from the literature. RESULTS: Despite the possible unreliability of some official statistics about COVID-19, the spread of the disease appears to be remarkably similar in most European countries, allowing us to estimate an average R0 in Western Europe of 2.2 (95% CI: 1.9-2.6). CONCLUSIONS: The value of R0 for COVID-19 in Western Europe appears to be significantly lower than that in China. The proportion of immune persons in the European population required to stop the outbreak could thus be closer to 50% than to 70%.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in Western Europe. METHODS: Data (official statistics) on the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 at the start of the outbreak (before any confinement rules were declared) were retrieved in the 15 largest countries in Western Europe, allowing us to estimate the exponential growth rate of the disease. The rate was then combined with estimates of the distribution of the generation interval as reconstructed from the literature. RESULTS: Despite the possible unreliability of some official statistics about COVID-19, the spread of the disease appears to be remarkably similar in most European countries, allowing us to estimate an average R0 in Western Europe of 2.2 (95% CI: 1.9-2.6). CONCLUSIONS: The value of R0 for COVID-19 in Western Europe appears to be significantly lower than that in China. The proportion of immune persons in the European population required to stop the outbreak could thus be closer to 50% than to 70%.
Authors: Shi Zhao; Peihua Cao; Daozhou Gao; Zian Zhuang; Yongli Cai; Jinjun Ran; Marc K C Chong; Kai Wang; Yijun Lou; Weiming Wang; Lin Yang; Daihai He; Maggie H Wang Journal: J Travel Med Date: 2020-05-18 Impact factor: 8.490
Authors: Salihu S Musa; Shi Zhao; Maggie H Wang; Abdurrazaq G Habib; Umar T Mustapha; Daihai He Journal: Infect Dis Poverty Date: 2020-07-16 Impact factor: 4.520
Authors: Bas Kolen; Laurens Znidarsic; Andreas Voss; Simon Donders; Iris Kamphorst; Maarten van Rijn; Dimitri Bonthuis; Merit Clocquet; Maarten Schram; Rutger Scharloo; Tim Boersma; Tim Stobernack; Pieter van Gelder Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2022-06-13 Impact factor: 4.614