Thermoregulatory model for immersion of humans in cold water.

The mathematical models of thermoregulation of Stolwijk and Hardy, and Montgomery were used to develop a model suitable for the simulation of human physiological responses to cold-water immersion. Data were obtained from experiments where 13 healthy male volunteers were totally immersed under resting and nude conditions for 1 h in water temperatures of 20 and 28 degrees C. At these temperatures, the mean measured rectal temperature (Tre) fell by approximately 0.9 and 0.5 degrees C, respectively, yet mean measured metabolic rate (M) rose by approximately 275 and 90 W for the low body fat group (n = 7) and 195 and 45 W for the moderate body fat group (n = 6). To predict the observed Tre and M values, the present model 1) included thermal inputs for shivering from the skin independent of their inclusion with the central temperature to account for the observed initial rapid rise in M, 2) determined a thermally neutral body temperature profile such that the measured and predicted initial values of Tre and M were matched, 3) confined the initial shivering to the trunk region to avoid an overly large predicted initial rate of rectal cooling, and 4) calculated the steady-state convective heat loss by assuming a zero heat storage in the skin compartment to circumvent the acute sensitivity to the small skin-water temperature difference when using conventional methods. The last three modifications are unique to thermoregulatory modeling.