Mark Robinson1,2, Daniel Mackay2, Lucie Giles3, Jim Lewsey2, Elizabeth Richardson3, Clare Beeston3. 1. Institute for Social Science Research, University of Queensland, Indooroopilly, Queensland, 4068. 2. Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G2 3AX. 3. Public Health Scotland, Meridian Court, 5 Cadogan St, Glasgow, G2 6QQ.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: On 1 May 2018, Scotland became the first country in the world to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP), a strength-based floor price below which alcohol cannot be sold, across all alcoholic beverages. The legislation contains a sunset clause meaning a comprehensive mixed methods evaluation of its impact across a range of outcomes will inform whether it will continue beyond its sixth year. In this study, we assessed the impact of MUP on off-trade alcohol sales (as a proxy for consumption) after its first year. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Controlled interrupted time-series regression was used to assess the impact of MUP on alcohol sales among off-trade retailers in Scotland in the year after it was introduced, with England and Wales (EW) being the control group. In adjusted analyses, we included household disposable income, on-trade alcohol sales and substitution between beverage categories as covariates. MEASUREMENTS: Weekly data on the volume of pure alcohol sold by off-trade retailers in Scotland and EW between January 2013 and May 2019, expressed as litres of pure alcohol per adult. FINDINGS: The introduction of MUP in Scotland was associated with a 3.5% (95% confidence interval: 2.2% to 4.9%) reduction in off-trade alcohol sales per adult after adjustment for the best available geographical control, disposable income and substitution. In unadjusted analysis, the introduction of MUP was associated with a 2.0% (95% confidence interval: 0.4% to 3.6%) reduction in off-trade alcohol sales per adult in Scotland. In EW, there was a 2.4% (0.8% to 4.0%) increase over the same time period. The reduction in off-trade alcohol sales in Scotland was driven by reduced sales of spirits, cider and perry beverage categories. CONCLUSION: The implementation of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland in 2018 appears to have been associated with a reduction in off-trade alcohol sales after its first year. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: On 1 May 2018, Scotland became the first country in the world to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP), a strength-based floor price below which alcohol cannot be sold, across all alcoholic beverages. The legislation contains a sunset clause meaning a comprehensive mixed methods evaluation of its impact across a range of outcomes will inform whether it will continue beyond its sixth year. In this study, we assessed the impact of MUP on off-trade alcohol sales (as a proxy for consumption) after its first year. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Controlled interrupted time-series regression was used to assess the impact of MUP on alcohol sales among off-trade retailers in Scotland in the year after it was introduced, with England and Wales (EW) being the control group. In adjusted analyses, we included household disposable income, on-trade alcohol sales and substitution between beverage categories as covariates. MEASUREMENTS: Weekly data on the volume of pure alcohol sold by off-trade retailers in Scotland and EW between January 2013 and May 2019, expressed as litres of pure alcohol per adult. FINDINGS: The introduction of MUP in Scotland was associated with a 3.5% (95% confidence interval: 2.2% to 4.9%) reduction in off-trade alcohol sales per adult after adjustment for the best available geographical control, disposable income and substitution. In unadjusted analysis, the introduction of MUP was associated with a 2.0% (95% confidence interval: 0.4% to 3.6%) reduction in off-trade alcohol sales per adult in Scotland. In EW, there was a 2.4% (0.8% to 4.0%) increase over the same time period. The reduction in off-trade alcohol sales in Scotland was driven by reduced sales of spirits, cider and perry beverage categories. CONCLUSION: The implementation of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland in 2018 appears to have been associated with a reduction in off-trade alcohol sales after its first year. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Authors: Roger Williams; Charles Alessi; Graeme Alexander; Michael Allison; Richard Aspinall; Rachel L Batterham; Neeraj Bhala; Natalie Day; Anil Dhawan; Colin Drummond; James Ferguson; Graham Foster; Ian Gilmore; Raphael Goldacre; Harriet Gordon; Clive Henn; Deirdre Kelly; Alastair MacGilchrist; Roger McCorry; Neil McDougall; Zulfiquar Mirza; Kieran Moriarty; Philip Newsome; Richard Pinder; Stephen Roberts; Harry Rutter; Stephen Ryder; Marianne Samyn; Katherine Severi; Nick Sheron; Douglas Thorburn; Julia Verne; John Williams; Andrew Yeoman Journal: Lancet Date: 2021-03-11 Impact factor: 202.731
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