Do the results of semen analysis predict future fertility? A survival analysis study.

The authors examined the results of the initial semen analysis from 1089 couples in an infertility clinic. The distributions of the values for various semen variables among couples who remained infertile were very similar to those among couples who later conceived. A cutoff point was selected in each pair of distributions to compare the cumulative probability of conception for couples with higher and lower results. The authors took into account the varying times to conception or loss to follow-up by using life table analysis. No statistically significant differences were found at the P = 0.05 level of significance. Cox's univariate and multiple regression models were then used to investigate the relationship between various semen characteristics and future fertility. Finding no significant influence of any semen characteristic on the cumulative probability of conception, the authors believe that using specific values of the semen analysis to estimate the potential for fertility of infertile couples is not useful.