Lincoln J Solomon1, Kuban D Naidoo, Ilse Appel, Linda G Doedens, Robin J Green, Michael A Long, Brenda Morrow, Noor M Parker, Denise Parris, Afke H Robroch, Shamiel Salie, Shivani A Singh, Andrew C Argent. 1. Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, University of the Free State Faculty of Health Sciences School of Medicine Bloemfontein, South Africa. Paediatric Intensive Care Units, Universitas Academic and Pelonomi Tertiary Hospitals, Bloemfontein, South Africa. Division of Critical Care and Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, University of the Witwatersrand School of Medicine, Johannesburg, South Africa. Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Tygerberg Hospital Paediatric Intensive Care Unit and the University of Stellenbosch Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch, South Africa. Department of Paediatrics and Child Health and Steve Biko Academic Hospital Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, University of Pretoria School of Medicine, Pretoria, South Africa. Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, University of the Free State Faculty of Health Sciences School of Medicine, Bloemfontein, South Africa. Cardiothoracic Intensive Care Unit, Universitas Academic Hospital, Bloemfontein, South Africa. Department of Paediatrics and Child Health and Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital Intensive Care Unit, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa. Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, Greys Hospital, Pietermaritzberg, South Africa. Department of Paediatrics, Nkosi Albert Luthuli Academic Hospital Paediatric Intensive Care Unit and the University of Kwazulu Natal School of Medicine, Durban, South Africa.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 as mortality risk assessment model. DESIGN: This prospective study included all admissions 30 days to 18 years old for 12 months during 2016 and 2017. Data gathered included the following: age and gender, diagnosis and reason for PICU admission, data specific for the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 calculation, PICU outcomes (death or survival), and length of PICU stay. SETTING: Nine units that care for children within tertiary or quaternary academic hospitals in South Africa. PATIENTS: All admissions 30 days to 18 years old, excluding premature infants, children who died within 2 hours of admission, or children transferred to other PICUs, and those older than 18 years old. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were 3,681 admissions of which 2,253 (61.3%) were male. The median age was 18 months (interquartile range, 6-59.5 mo). There were 354 deaths (9.6%). The Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 predicted 277.47 deaths (7.5%). The overall standardized mortality ratio was 1.28. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.83). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test statistic was 174.4 (p < 0.001). Standardized mortality ratio for all age groups was greater than 1. Standardized mortality ratio for diagnostic subgroups was mostly greater than 1 except for those whose reason for PICU admission was classified as accident, toxin and envenomation, and metabolic which had an standardized mortality ratio less than 1. There were similar proportions of respiratory patients, but significantly greater proportions of neurologic and cardiac (including postoperative) patients in the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 derivation cohort than the South African cohort. In contrast, the South African cohort contained a significantly greater proportion of miscellaneous (including injury/accident victims) and postoperative noncardiac patients. CONCLUSIONS: The Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 discrimination between death and survival among South African units was good. Case-mix differences between these units and the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 derivation cohort may partly explain the poor calibration. We need to recalibrate Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 to the local setting.
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 as mortality risk assessment model. DESIGN: This prospective study included all admissions 30 days to 18 years old for 12 months during 2016 and 2017. Data gathered included the following: age and gender, diagnosis and reason for PICU admission, data specific for the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 calculation, PICU outcomes (death or survival), and length of PICU stay. SETTING: Nine units that care for children within tertiary or quaternary academic hospitals in South Africa. PATIENTS: All admissions 30 days to 18 years old, excluding premature infants, children who died within 2 hours of admission, or children transferred to other PICUs, and those older than 18 years old. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were 3,681 admissions of which 2,253 (61.3%) were male. The median age was 18 months (interquartile range, 6-59.5 mo). There were 354 deaths (9.6%). The Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 predicted 277.47 deaths (7.5%). The overall standardized mortality ratio was 1.28. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.83). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test statistic was 174.4 (p < 0.001). Standardized mortality ratio for all age groups was greater than 1. Standardized mortality ratio for diagnostic subgroups was mostly greater than 1 except for those whose reason for PICU admission was classified as accident, toxin and envenomation, and metabolic which had an standardized mortality ratio less than 1. There were similar proportions of respiratory patients, but significantly greater proportions of neurologic and cardiac (including postoperative) patients in the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 derivation cohort than the South African cohort. In contrast, the South African cohort contained a significantly greater proportion of miscellaneous (including injury/accident victims) and postoperative noncardiac patients. CONCLUSIONS: The Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 discrimination between death and survival among South African units was good. Case-mix differences between these units and the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 derivation cohort may partly explain the poor calibration. We need to recalibrate Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 to the local setting.