Theophilus I Emeto1,2, Faith O Alele1,2, Olayinka S Ilesanmi3,4. 1. Discipline of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Douglas, Townsville 4811, Australia. 2. Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Douglas, Townsville 4811, Australia. 3. Department of Community Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria. 4. Department of Community Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Border closure is one of the policy changes implemented to mitigate against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We evaluated the effect of border closure on the incidence rate of COVID-19 across nine African countries. METHODS: An interrupted time series analysis was used to assess COVID-19 incidence rates in Egypt, Tunisia, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa (SA). Data were collected between 14 February and 19 July 2020 from online data repositories. The linear trend and magnitude of change were evaluated using the itsa function with ordinary least-squares regression in Stata with a 7-d deferred interruption point, which allows a period of diffusion post-border closure. RESULTS: Overall, the countries recorded an increase in the incidence rate of COVID-19 after border closure. However, when compared with matched control groups, SA, Nigeria, Ghana, Egypt and Kenya showed a higher incidence rate trend. In contrast, Ethiopia, DRC and Tunisia showed a lower trend compared with their controls. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of border closures within African countries had minimal effect on the incidence of COVID-19. The inclusion of other control measures such as enhanced testing capacity and improved surveillance activities will reveal the effectiveness of border closure measures.
BACKGROUND: Border closure is one of the policy changes implemented to mitigate against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We evaluated the effect of border closure on the incidence rate of COVID-19 across nine African countries. METHODS: An interrupted time series analysis was used to assess COVID-19 incidence rates in Egypt, Tunisia, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa (SA). Data were collected between 14 February and 19 July 2020 from online data repositories. The linear trend and magnitude of change were evaluated using the itsa function with ordinary least-squares regression in Stata with a 7-d deferred interruption point, which allows a period of diffusion post-border closure. RESULTS: Overall, the countries recorded an increase in the incidence rate of COVID-19 after border closure. However, when compared with matched control groups, SA, Nigeria, Ghana, Egypt and Kenya showed a higher incidence rate trend. In contrast, Ethiopia, DRC and Tunisia showed a lower trend compared with their controls. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of border closures within African countries had minimal effect on the incidence of COVID-19. The inclusion of other control measures such as enhanced testing capacity and improved surveillance activities will reveal the effectiveness of border closure measures.
Authors: Marius Gilbert; Giulia Pullano; Francesco Pinotti; Eugenio Valdano; Chiara Poletto; Pierre-Yves Boëlle; Eric D'Ortenzio; Yazdan Yazdanpanah; Serge Paul Eholie; Mathias Altmann; Bernardo Gutierrez; Moritz U G Kraemer; Vittoria Colizza Journal: Lancet Date: 2020-02-20 Impact factor: 79.321
Authors: Adeshina Adekunle; Michael Meehan; Diana Rojas-Alvarez; James Trauer; Emma McBryde Journal: Aust N Z J Public Health Date: 2020-07-22 Impact factor: 3.755