The aftermath of the corona virus pandemic.

Once in a few centuries there is a watershed event on planet earth that changes the course of human history. I believe that the COVID-19 virus was such a cataclysmic event that will change the course of human history in numerous ways. Before expressing my vision of these changes and their long lasting impacts on the world’s economy in general and the hospitality industry in particular, I would like to shortly summarize the tragic impacts that this virus had on humanity. At the time that this editorial was written there were 113 million cases of infections, worldwide, that resulted in 2.5 million deaths. The top three countries in infections and deaths were the USA with 28.4 million infections and 506,000 deaths, India with 11 million infections and 157,000 deaths and Brazil with 10.3 million infections and 250,000 deaths (BBC, 2021). To put this in the proper perspective, the total number of worldwide deaths due to the COVID-19 virus [113 million] exceeded by 43 million the total number of deaths in both world wars [70 million] (Diffen, 2021). Though there are no worldwide statistics on the economic losses due to the COVID-19 virus, it is safe to assume that the number of jobs lost worldwide, is more than 100 million. The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) estimates USA alone lost more than 23 million jobs by the middle of 2020. (CIDRAP, 2021). The top five occupations that have suffered the biggest job losses in the USA due to COVID-19 virus, were: (1) Leisure and Hospitality jobs – 1.3 million employees, resulting in 16.7 % unemployment; (2) Support jobs for Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction – 58,000 employees, resulting in 8.4 % unemployment; (4) Construction jobs – 441,000 employees, resulting in 9.6 % unemployment and (5) Motion Picture and Music industry jobs – 110,000 employees, resulting in 6.4 % unemployment (AARP, 2021). Thus, as can be seen from the above, the hospitality, leisure, travel and tourism industries have suffered a catastrophic and devastating impact that may take years to recover from.

In my humble opinion, when the recovery occurs, it will not be back to the “old normal” but to a leaner and more efficient “new normal.” My specific predictions of this “new normal’ are based on the hard lessons that we learned from the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of these lessons apply to humanity as a whole and the world economy in general, and others are specific to the hospitality and tourism industries.

The virus did not respect any political or geographical borders and spread freely and easily throughout the world.

The virus spread from region to region and from country to country mostly by travel and tourism activities

The health outcomes of infections were more serious and lethal for senior citizens, men and women with underlying health conditions and poor people. A disproportional percentage of those who succumbed to the pandemic were either in their 70’s and above, or suffered from chronic illnesses.

With few exceptions the vaccination process was rather slow and to this date the absolute majority of the world’s population has not been vaccinated.

New variants of COVID-19 virus which spread more easily and quickly have been discovered. Some of these may be more lethal and at present it is unknown whether the current vaccines are effective against these variants.

Tens of millions of people who normally worked in bricks and mortar workplaces, moved to working remotely from home.

People who needed routine medical treatments stopped seeing their healthcare providers because of fear of being infected. The end result was that the health condition of these people, worsened.

Many healthcare clinicians shifted their practice to telemedicine without having the proper training for using this mode of treatment. This resulted in numerous cases of patients’ dissatisfaction.

Though the virus spread equally around the world, its negative economic impact was unequal. The economic impact was more severe and devastating in developing countries than in developed ones.

Neither developed nor developing countries chose to cooperate with each other in developing a vaccine and/or finding a cure. Each country was left on its own to combat the pandemic. International health organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) were not effective in organizing multi-country cooperation in developing a vaccine or finding a cure.

In some countries, the pandemic was politicized, resulting in a lack of adherence to proper public health practices to avoid the virus’ spread throughout the population. Lockdowns were incomplete and numerous people refused to wear masks and keep social distance.

Schools of all levels moved their teaching to online modes in either synchronous or asynchronous formats.

For the most part, the lodging industry was not successful in assuring the public that it is safe to stay in hotels. Consequently, numerous hotels, motels and resorts, declared bankruptcy or went out of business. Millions of lodging employees, worldwide, lost their jobs..

The events industry suffered a drastic decline in business, similar to that of the lodging industry but managed to partially recover by shifting business meetings, seminars and professional meetings to a virtual mode through such platforms as Zoom, Webex, GoogleMeet, Skype Meet Now, Mikogo, Microsoft Teams, etc.

The interdependence between the hospitality, tourism and travel industries, became clearer and more obvious in the case of tourist destinations. When people stopped flying or using land-based public transportation because of fear of infections, hotels, restaurants and event venues experienced a disastrous decline in their occupancy.

Neither the hospitality nor the tourism industry were prepared to cope with major crises in general and health-related crises in particular.

The restaurant industry did not fare much better than the lodging industry, though some facilities shifted their operations to delivery - either by their own means or through a specialized service such as Uber Eats - and introduced curbside takeout.

The hospitality and tourism industries became less attractive to current and potential employees because of its high vulnerability to health-related crises. Many employees who were furloughed or terminated sought and accepted employment in more stable industries

Many schools of hospitality management at universities throughout the world, experienced a decline in the number of incoming students.

Hospitality students who needed to complete a paid internship as a graduation requirement, had major difficulties in finding appropriate workplaces and had to seek internships in other service industries.

Based on the above occurrences my prediction for the recovery and the “new normal” are as follows:

The worldwide vaccination process will be incomplete for years to come. A significant number of skeptics will refuse to be vaccinated for a variety of reasons.

Governments and businesses in all sectors of the economy will devote more time, efforts and resources to preparing crisis plans.

Hospitality and tourism businesses will pay more attention and devote more resources to observing good hygiene practices

The economic recovery will take several years and will be gradual.

Once the majority of the population in developed countries will be vaccinated, there will be a temporary spike in the demand for hospitality and tourism products and services (the pent-up demand phenomenon). This demand will wane in time and reach a level that will be below the pre-pandemic era.

The demand for office space will decline as more people will work remotely from home in many industries.

The meetings and events industry will see a decline in the number of face-to-face business meetings. Numerous business meetings and events that were previously done in a face-to-face mode, will move to online formats because of convenience, low cost and satisfactory experience during the height of the pandemic era.

The restaurant industry will see an increase in the proportion of meals delivered or taken out, to a level that would be higher than the pre-pandemic era. This will occur because of convenience and previous satisfactory experiences.

The total worldwide number of employees in the hospitality and tourism industries will shrink to a level below the pre pandemic era. This will happen because of a reduction in the number of hospitality and tourism businesses that occurred during the pandemic era.

Many colleges and universities, worldwide, will offer more credit-bearing and continuing education courses in online and mixed mode formats, after gaining significant experience during the pandemic era.

To combat an anticipated decline in the incoming number of students in hospitality and tourism programs, colleges and universities will redefine the concept of hospitality which is currently anchored on a particular industry, to an organizational culture which embodies a philosophy of service that emphasizes a high degree of customer service and customer satisfaction. Thus, students studying hospitality management will be prepared to work in other service industries such as retail, healthcare, senior living, etc.