J C Fyfe1, V V Kharin2, N Swart2, G M Flato2, M Sigmond2, N P Gillett2. 1. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 2Y2, Canada. john.fyfe@canada.ca. 2. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 2Y2, Canada.
Abstract
The COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic has resulted in a marked slowdown in greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. Although the resulting emission reductions will continue to evolve, this will presumably be temporary. Here, we provide estimates of the potential effect of such short-term emission reductions on global and regional temperature and precipitation by analyzing the response of an Earth System Model to a range of idealized near-term emission pathways not considered in available model intercomparison projects. These estimates reveal the modest impact that temporary emission reductions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will have on global and regional climate. Our simulations suggest that the impact of carbon dioxide and aerosol emission reductions is actually a temporary enhancement in warming rate. However, our results demonstrate that even large emission reductions applied for a short duration have only a small and likely undetectable impact.
The COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic has resulted in a marked slowdown in greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. Although the resulting emission reductions will continue to evolve, this will presumably be temporary. Here, we provide estimates of the potential effect of such short-term emission reductions on global and regional temperature and precipitation by analyzing the response of an Earth System Model to a range of idealized near-term emission pathways not considered in available model intercomparison projects. These estimates reveal the modest impact that temporary emission reductions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will have on global and regional climate. Our simulations suggest that the impact of carbon dioxide and aerosol emission reductions is actually a temporary enhancement in warming rate. However, our results demonstrate that even large emission reductions applied for a short duration have only a small and likely undetectable impact.
Authors: Nicole S Lovenduski; Abhishek Chatterjee; Neil C Swart; John C Fyfe; Ralph F Keeling; David Schimel Journal: Geophys Res Lett Date: 2021-11-19 Impact factor: 4.720
Authors: Matthew W Christensen; Andrew Gettelman; Jan Cermak; Guy Dagan; Michael Diamond; Alyson Douglas; Graham Feingold; Franziska Glassmeier; Tom Goren; Daniel P Grosvenor; Edward Gryspeerdt; Ralph Kahn; Zhanqing Li; Po-Lun Ma; Florent Malavelle; Isabel L McCoy; Daniel T McCoy; Greg McFarquhar; Johannes Mülmenstädt; Sandip Pal; Anna Possner; Adam Povey; Johannes Quaas; Daniel Rosenfeld; Anja Schmidt; Roland Schrödner; Armin Sorooshian; Philip Stier; Velle Toll; Duncan Watson-Parris; Robert Wood; Mingxi Yang; Tianle Yuan Journal: Atmos Chem Phys Date: 2022-01-17 Impact factor: 6.133
Authors: Joshua L Laughner; Jessica L Neu; David Schimel; Paul O Wennberg; Kelley Barsanti; Kevin W Bowman; Abhishek Chatterjee; Bart E Croes; Helen L Fitzmaurice; Daven K Henze; Jinsol Kim; Eric A Kort; Zhu Liu; Kazuyuki Miyazaki; Alexander J Turner; Susan Anenberg; Jeremy Avise; Hansen Cao; David Crisp; Joost de Gouw; Annmarie Eldering; John C Fyfe; Daniel L Goldberg; Kevin R Gurney; Sina Hasheminassab; Francesca Hopkins; Cesunica E Ivey; Dylan B A Jones; Junjie Liu; Nicole S Lovenduski; Randall V Martin; Galen A McKinley; Lesley Ott; Benjamin Poulter; Muye Ru; Stanley P Sander; Neil Swart; Yuk L Yung; Zhao-Cheng Zeng Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Date: 2021-11-16 Impact factor: 12.779