Chun-Jing Wang1,2, Rong Wang3, Chun-Mei Yu4, Xiao-Peng Dang3, Wan-Gui Sun4, Qiang-Feng Li2, Xiao-Ting Wang4, Ji-Zhong Wan1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining, China. 2. College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Qinghai University, Xining, China. 3. Forestry and Grassland Planning Institute of Qinghai Province, Forestry and Grassland Administration of Qinghai Province, Xining, China. 4. Forest Pest Control and Quarantine Station of Qinghai Province, Forestry and Grassland Administration of Qinghai Province, Xining, China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Growth in insect pest populations poses a significant threat to ecosystem functions and services, societal development, and food security in alpine regions under climate change. Risk assessments are important prioritization tools for pest management, which must be used to study insect pest expansion in alpine ecosystems under global warming. We used species distribution modeling to simulate the current and future distribution probabilities of 58 insect pest species in the Qinghai Province, China, based on a comprehensive field investigation. Subsequently, general linear modeling was used to explore the relationship between the distribution probability of these species and the damage caused by them. Finally, we assessed the ecological risk of insect pest expansion across different alpine ecosystems under climate change. RESULTS: Climate change could increase the distribution probabilities of insect pest species across different alpine ecosystems. However, the presence of insect pest species may not correspond to the damage occurrence in alpine ecosystems based on percent leaf loss, amount of stunting, and seedling death of their host species. Significant positive relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence were found for several of the examined insect pest species. Insect pest expansion is likely to increase extensively in alpine ecosystems under increasing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emission scenarios. CONCLUSION: The relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence should be considered in species distribution modeling for risk assessment of insect pest expansion under climate change. Our study could improve the effectiveness of risk assessment of insect pest expansion under changing climate conditions.
BACKGROUND: Growth in insect pest populations poses a significant threat to ecosystem functions and services, societal development, and food security in alpine regions under climate change. Risk assessments are important prioritization tools for pest management, which must be used to study insect pest expansion in alpine ecosystems under global warming. We used species distribution modeling to simulate the current and future distribution probabilities of 58 insect pest species in the Qinghai Province, China, based on a comprehensive field investigation. Subsequently, general linear modeling was used to explore the relationship between the distribution probability of these species and the damage caused by them. Finally, we assessed the ecological risk of insect pest expansion across different alpine ecosystems under climate change. RESULTS: Climate change could increase the distribution probabilities of insect pest species across different alpine ecosystems. However, the presence of insect pest species may not correspond to the damage occurrence in alpine ecosystems based on percent leaf loss, amount of stunting, and seedling death of their host species. Significant positive relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence were found for several of the examined insect pest species. Insect pest expansion is likely to increase extensively in alpine ecosystems under increasing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emission scenarios. CONCLUSION: The relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence should be considered in species distribution modeling for risk assessment of insect pest expansion under climate change. Our study could improve the effectiveness of risk assessment of insect pest expansion under changing climate conditions.
Authors: Huaquan Zhang; Yashuang Tang; Abbas Ali Chandio; Ghulam Raza Sargani; Martinson Ankrah Twumasi Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2022-09-28 Impact factor: 4.614