Max T Eyre1,2, Rachel Burns3, Victoria Kirkby3, Catherine Smith4, Spiros Denaxas4,5,6,7,8, Vincent Nguyen3,9, Andrew Hayward9, Laura Shallcross4, Ellen Fragaszy4,10, Robert W Aldridge3. 1. Centre of Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YW, UK. 2. Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, L3 5QA, UK. 3. Centre of Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK. 4. Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK. 5. Health Data Research UK, London, NW1 2DA, UK. 6. The Alan Turing Institute, London, NW1 2DB, UK. 7. The National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, University College London, London, W1T 7DN, UK. 8. British Heart Foundation Research Accelerator, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK. 9. Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, WC1E 7HB, UK. 10. Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
Abstract
Background: Diagnostic testing forms a major part of the UK's response to the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with tests offered to anyone with a continuous cough, high temperature or anosmia. Testing capacity must be sufficient during the winter respiratory season when levels of cough and fever are high due to non-COVID-19 causes. This study aims to make predictions about the contribution of baseline cough or fever to future testing demand in the UK. Methods: In this analysis of the Bug Watch prospective community cohort study, we estimated the incidence of cough or fever in England in 2018-2019. We then estimated the COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates required in the UK for baseline cough or fever cases for the period July 2020-June 2021. This was explored for different rates of the population requesting tests and four COVID-19 second wave scenarios. Estimates were then compared to current national capacity. Results: The baseline incidence of cough or fever in the UK is expected to rise rapidly from 154,554 (95%CI 103,083 - 231,725) cases per day in August 2020 to 250,708 (95%CI 181,095 - 347,080) in September, peaking at 444,660 (95%CI 353,084 - 559,988) in December. If 80% of baseline cough or fever cases request tests, average daily UK testing demand would exceed current capacity for five consecutive months (October 2020 to February 2021), with a peak demand of 147,240 (95%CI 73,978 - 239,502) tests per day above capacity in December 2020. Conclusions: Our results show that current national COVID-19 testing capacity is likely to be exceeded by demand due to baseline cough and fever alone. This study highlights that the UK's response to the COVID-19 pandemic must ensure that a high proportion of people with symptoms request tests, and that testing capacity is immediately scaled up to meet this high predicted demand. Copyright:
Background: Diagnostic testing forms a major part of the UK's response to the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with tests offered to anyone with a continuous cough, high temperature or anosmia. Testing capacity must be sufficient during the winter respiratory season when levels of cough and fever are high due to non-COVID-19 causes. This study aims to make predictions about the contribution of baseline cough or fever to future testing demand in the UK. Methods: In this analysis of the Bug Watch prospective community cohort study, we estimated the incidence of cough or fever in England in 2018-2019. We then estimated the COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates required in the UK for baseline cough or fever cases for the period July 2020-June 2021. This was explored for different rates of the population requesting tests and four COVID-19 second wave scenarios. Estimates were then compared to current national capacity. Results: The baseline incidence of cough or fever in the UK is expected to rise rapidly from 154,554 (95%CI 103,083 - 231,725) cases per day in August 2020 to 250,708 (95%CI 181,095 - 347,080) in September, peaking at 444,660 (95%CI 353,084 - 559,988) in December. If 80% of baseline cough or fever cases request tests, average daily UK testing demand would exceed current capacity for five consecutive months (October 2020 to February 2021), with a peak demand of 147,240 (95%CI 73,978 - 239,502) tests per day above capacity in December 2020. Conclusions: Our results show that current national COVID-19 testing capacity is likely to be exceeded by demand due to baseline cough and fever alone. This study highlights that the UK's response to the COVID-19 pandemic must ensure that a high proportion of people with symptoms request tests, and that testing capacity is immediately scaled up to meet this high predicted demand. Copyright:
Authors: Matt Spick; Holly M Lewis; Michael J Wilde; Christopher Hopley; Jim Huggett; Melanie J Bailey Journal: Metabolism Date: 2021-10-27 Impact factor: 8.694