Dianna J Magliano1, Lei Chen2, Rakibul M Islam3, Bendix Carstensen4, Edward W Gregg5, Meda E Pavkov6, Linda J Andes6, Ran Balicer7, Marta Baviera8, Elise Boersma-van Dam9, Gillian L Booth10, Juliana C N Chan11, Yi Xian Chua12, Sandrine Fosse-Edorh13, Sonsoles Fuentes13, Hanne L Gulseth14, Romualdas Gurevicius15, Kyoung Hwa Ha16, Thomas R Hird17, György Jermendy18, Mykola D Khalangot19, Dae Jung Kim16, Zoltán Kiss20, Victor I Kravchenko21, Maya Leventer-Roberts22, Chun-Yi Lin23, Andrea O Y Luk11, Manel Mata-Cases24, Didac Mauricio25, Gregory A Nichols26, Mark M Nielen9, Deanette Pang12, Sanjoy K Paul27, Catherine Pelletier28, Santa Pildava29, Avi Porath30, Stephanie H Read31, Maria Carla Roncaglioni8, Paz Lopez-Doriga Ruiz32, Marina Shestakova33, Olga Vikulova33, Kang-Ling Wang23, Sarah H Wild31, Naama Yekutiel34, Jonathan E Shaw35. 1. Department of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Electronic address: dianna.magliano@baker.edu.au. 2. Department of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. 3. School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. 4. Clinical Epidemiology, Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen, Gentofte, Denmark. 5. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. 6. Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA. 7. Clalit Research Institute, Clalit Health Services, Tel Aviv, Israel. 8. Laboratory of Cardiovascular Prevention, Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research IRCCS, Milan, Italy. 9. Department of General Practice, Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research, Utrecht, Netherlands. 10. Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. 11. Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China. 12. Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Public Health Group, Ministry of Health, Singapore. 13. Department of Non-Communicable Diseases and Trauma, Santé Publique France, Saint-Maurice, France. 14. Department for Chronic Diseases and Ageing, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway. 15. Center of Health Information, Institute of Hygiene, Vilnius, Lithuania; Faculty of Public Governance and Business, Mykolas Romeris University, Vilnius, Lithuania. 16. Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, South Korea. 17. Department of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. 18. 3rd Medical Department, Bajcsy-Zsilinszky Hospital, Budapest, Hungary. 19. Komisarenko Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, National Academy of Medical Sciences, Kyiv, Ukraine; Endocrinology Department, Shupyk National Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, Kyiv, Ukraine. 20. 2nd Department of Medicine and Nephrological Center, Medical Faculty, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary. 21. Komisarenko Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, National Academy of Medical Sciences, Kyiv, Ukraine. 22. Clalit Research Institute, Clalit Health Services, Tel Aviv, Israel; Department of Pediatrics and Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA. 23. General Clinical Research Center, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan. 24. CIBER of Diabetes and Associated Metabolic Diseases, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Barcelona, Spain; DAP-Cat Group, Institut Català de la Salut, Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Barcelona Ciutat, Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol, Barcelona, Spain. 25. CIBER of Diabetes and Associated Metabolic Diseases, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Barcelona, Spain; DAP-Cat Group, Institut Català de la Salut, Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Barcelona Ciutat, Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Endocrinology and Nutrition, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. 26. Science Programs Department, Kaiser Permanente Center for Health Research, Portland, OR, USA. 27. Melbourne EpiCentre, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. 28. Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada. 29. Research and Health Statistics Department, Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Riga, Latvia. 30. Research Institute, Maccabi Healthcare Services, Tel Aviv, Israel; Faculty of Health, Ben Gurion University, Beer-Sheva, Israel. 31. Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK. 32. Department for Chronic Diseases and Ageing, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway; Department of Endocrinology, Morbid Obesity and Preventive Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway. 33. Diabetes Institute, Endocrinology Research Center, Moscow, Russia. 34. Research Institute, Maccabi Healthcare Services, Tel Aviv, Israel. 35. Department of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Life Sciences, Latrobe University, Bundoora, VIC, Australia.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Diabetes prevalence is increasing in most places in the world, but prevalence is affected by both risk of developing diabetes and survival of those with diabetes. Diabetes incidence is a better metric to understand the trends in population risk of diabetes. Using a multicountry analysis, we aimed to ascertain whether the incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has changed over time. METHODS: In this multicountry data analysis, we assembled aggregated data describing trends in diagnosed total or type 2 diabetes incidence from 24 population-based data sources in 21 countries or jurisdictions. Data were from administrative sources, health insurance records, registries, and a health survey. We modelled incidence rates with Poisson regression, using age and calendar time (1995-2018) as variables, describing the effects with restricted cubic splines with six knots for age and calendar time. FINDINGS: Our data included about 22 million diabetes diagnoses from 5 billion person-years of follow-up. Data were from 19 high-income and two middle-income countries or jurisdictions. 23 data sources had data from 2010 onwards, among which 19 had a downward or stable trend, with an annual estimated change in incidence ranging from -1·1% to -10·8%. Among the four data sources with an increasing trend from 2010 onwards, the annual estimated change ranged from 0·9% to 5·6%. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding data sources in which the data quality was lower and were consistent in analyses stratified by different diabetes definitions. INTERPRETATION: The incidence of diagnosed diabetes is stabilising or declining in many high-income countries. The reasons for the declines in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes warrant further investigation with appropriate data sources. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Program, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Program.
BACKGROUND:Diabetes prevalence is increasing in most places in the world, but prevalence is affected by both risk of developing diabetes and survival of those with diabetes. Diabetes incidence is a better metric to understand the trends in population risk of diabetes. Using a multicountry analysis, we aimed to ascertain whether the incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has changed over time. METHODS: In this multicountry data analysis, we assembled aggregated data describing trends in diagnosed total or type 2 diabetes incidence from 24 population-based data sources in 21 countries or jurisdictions. Data were from administrative sources, health insurance records, registries, and a health survey. We modelled incidence rates with Poisson regression, using age and calendar time (1995-2018) as variables, describing the effects with restricted cubic splines with six knots for age and calendar time. FINDINGS: Our data included about 22 million diabetes diagnoses from 5 billion person-years of follow-up. Data were from 19 high-income and two middle-income countries or jurisdictions. 23 data sources had data from 2010 onwards, among which 19 had a downward or stable trend, with an annual estimated change in incidence ranging from -1·1% to -10·8%. Among the four data sources with an increasing trend from 2010 onwards, the annual estimated change ranged from 0·9% to 5·6%. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding data sources in which the data quality was lower and were consistent in analyses stratified by different diabetes definitions. INTERPRETATION: The incidence of diagnosed diabetes is stabilising or declining in many high-income countries. The reasons for the declines in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes warrant further investigation with appropriate data sources. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Program, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Program.
Authors: John Dibato; Olga Montvida; Joanna Ling; Digsu Koye; William H Polonsky; Sanjoy K Paul Journal: Diabetologia Date: 2022-09-05 Impact factor: 10.460
Authors: Matthew J L Hare; Yuejen Zhao; Steven Guthridge; Paul Burgess; Elizabeth L M Barr; Elna Ellis; Deborah Butler; Amy Rosser; Henrik Falhammar; Louise J Maple-Brown Journal: BMJ Open Date: 2022-05-15 Impact factor: 3.006
Authors: Jakob S Knudsen; Signe S Knudsen; Adam Hulman; Daniel R Witte; Edward W Gregg; Torsten Lauritzen; Lars Pedersen; Henrik T Sørensen; Reimar W Thomsen Journal: Lancet Reg Health Eur Date: 2022-01-01
Authors: Sharen Lee; Jiandong Zhou; Keith Sai Kit Leung; William Ka Kei Wu; Wing Tak Wong; Tong Liu; Ian Chi Kei Wong; Kamalan Jeevaratnam; Qingpeng Zhang; Gary Tse Journal: BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care Date: 2021-06
Authors: Ana Paula B Pena-Gralle; Denis Talbot; Caroline S Duchaine; Mathilde Lavigne-Robichaud; Xavier Trudel; Karine Aubé; Matthias Gralle; Mahée Gilbert-Ouimet; Alain Milot; Chantal Brisson Journal: Scand J Work Environ Health Date: 2021-09-28 Impact factor: 5.024