Literature DB >> 33629933

Lessons from the devastating impact of the first COVID-19 wave in Italy.

Cleo Anastassopoulou1, Constantinos Siettos2, Lucia Russo3, Georgia Vrioni1, Athanasios Tsakris1.   

Abstract

Herein, we are critically examining the chain of events and discussing previously unrecognized factors that led to the 'perfect COVID-19 storm' in northern Italy during the first epidemic wave in spring 2020. SARS-CoV-2 was circulating uncontrollably at least for five weeks before the adoption of containment measures, and the role of exponential growth in the spread of the virus, conveyed by a high R0, was likely underestimated. An understanding of this failure's causes and contexts will help us to control the strong second wave of the pandemic we are now facing in Europe, and to be better prepared for future outbreaks.

Entities:  

Keywords:  COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; asymptomatic cases; basic reproduction number R0; day zero; epidemic waves

Mesh:

Year:  2021        PMID: 33629933      PMCID: PMC8168751          DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2021.1894399

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Pathog Glob Health        ISSN: 2047-7724            Impact factor:   2.894


  3 in total

1.  Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0).

Authors:  Paul L Delamater; Erica J Street; Timothy F Leslie; Y Tony Yang; Kathryn H Jacobsen
Journal:  Emerg Infect Dis       Date:  2019-01       Impact factor: 6.883

2.  Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in an Oropharyngeal Swab Specimen, Milan, Italy, Early December 2019.

Authors:  Antonella Amendola; Silvia Bianchi; Maria Gori; Daniela Colzani; Marta Canuti; Elisa Borghi; Mario C Raviglione; Gian Vincenzo Zuccotti; Elisabetta Tanzi
Journal:  Emerg Infect Dis       Date:  2020-12-08       Impact factor: 6.883

3.  Tracing day-zero and forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: A compartmental modelling and numerical optimization approach.

Authors:  Lucia Russo; Cleo Anastassopoulou; Athanasios Tsakris; Gennaro Nicola Bifulco; Emilio Fortunato Campana; Gerardo Toraldo; Constantinos Siettos
Journal:  PLoS One       Date:  2020-10-30       Impact factor: 3.240

  3 in total
  1 in total

1.  COVID-19 attributed mortality and ambient temperature: a global ecological study using a two-stage regression model.

Authors:  Thamara Tapia-Muñoz; Andres González-Santa Cruz; Harrison Clarke; Walter Morris; Yasna Palmeiro-Silva; Kasim Allel
Journal:  Pathog Glob Health       Date:  2021-11-27       Impact factor: 3.735

  1 in total

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