| Literature DB >> 33627766 |
Fredrik Ronquist1, Jan Kudlicka2, Viktor Senderov3, Johannes Borgström2, Nicolas Lartillot4, Daniel Lundén5, Lawrence Murray6, Thomas B Schön2, David Broman5.
Abstract
Statistical phylogenetic analysis currently relies on complex, dedicated software packages, making it difficult for evolutionary biologists to explore new models and inference strategies. Recent years have seen more generic solutions based on probabilistic graphical models, but this formalism can only partly express phylogenetic problems. Here, we show that universal probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) solve the expressivity problem, while still supporting automated generation of efficient inference algorithms. To prove the latter point, we develop automated generation of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms for PPL descriptions of arbitrary biological diversification (birth-death) models. SMC is a new inference strategy for these problems, supporting both parameter inference and efficient estimation of Bayes factors that are used in model testing. We take advantage of this in automatically generating SMC algorithms for several recent diversification models that have been difficult or impossible to tackle previously. Finally, applying these algorithms to 40 bird phylogenies, we show that models with slowing diversification, constant turnover and many small shifts generally explain the data best. Our work opens up several related problem domains to PPL approaches, and shows that few hurdles remain before these techniques can be effectively applied to the full range of phylogenetic models.Entities:
Year: 2021 PMID: 33627766 PMCID: PMC7904853 DOI: 10.1038/s42003-021-01753-7
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Commun Biol ISSN: 2399-3642