Literature DB >> 33627766

Universal probabilistic programming offers a powerful approach to statistical phylogenetics.

Fredrik Ronquist1, Jan Kudlicka2, Viktor Senderov3, Johannes Borgström2, Nicolas Lartillot4, Daniel Lundén5, Lawrence Murray6, Thomas B Schön2, David Broman5.   

Abstract

Statistical phylogenetic analysis currently relies on complex, dedicated software packages, making it difficult for evolutionary biologists to explore new models and inference strategies. Recent years have seen more generic solutions based on probabilistic graphical models, but this formalism can only partly express phylogenetic problems. Here, we show that universal probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) solve the expressivity problem, while still supporting automated generation of efficient inference algorithms. To prove the latter point, we develop automated generation of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms for PPL descriptions of arbitrary biological diversification (birth-death) models. SMC is a new inference strategy for these problems, supporting both parameter inference and efficient estimation of Bayes factors that are used in model testing. We take advantage of this in automatically generating SMC algorithms for several recent diversification models that have been difficult or impossible to tackle previously. Finally, applying these algorithms to 40 bird phylogenies, we show that models with slowing diversification, constant turnover and many small shifts generally explain the data best. Our work opens up several related problem domains to PPL approaches, and shows that few hurdles remain before these techniques can be effectively applied to the full range of phylogenetic models.

Entities:  

Year:  2021        PMID: 33627766      PMCID: PMC7904853          DOI: 10.1038/s42003-021-01753-7

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Commun Biol        ISSN: 2399-3642


  25 in total

1.  Improving marginal likelihood estimation for Bayesian phylogenetic model selection.

Authors:  Wangang Xie; Paul O Lewis; Yu Fan; Lynn Kuo; Ming-Hui Chen
Journal:  Syst Biol       Date:  2010-12-27       Impact factor: 15.683

2.  Computing Bayes factors using thermodynamic integration.

Authors:  Nicolas Lartillot; Hervé Philippe
Journal:  Syst Biol       Date:  2006-04       Impact factor: 15.683

Review 3.  Why does diversification slow down?

Authors:  Daniel Moen; Hélène Morlon
Journal:  Trends Ecol Evol       Date:  2014-03-05       Impact factor: 17.712

4.  Critically evaluating the theory and performance of Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures.

Authors:  Brian R Moore; Sebastian Höhna; Michael R May; Bruce Rannala; John P Huelsenbeck
Journal:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A       Date:  2016-08-10       Impact factor: 11.205

5.  Is BAMM Flawed? Theoretical and Practical Concerns in the Analysis of Multi-Rate Diversification Models.

Authors:  Daniel L Rabosky; Jonathan S Mitchell; Jonathan Chang
Journal:  Syst Biol       Date:  2017-07-01       Impact factor: 15.683

6.  RevBayes: Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference Using Graphical Models and an Interactive Model-Specification Language.

Authors:  Sebastian Höhna; Michael J Landis; Tracy A Heath; Bastien Boussau; Nicolas Lartillot; Brian R Moore; John P Huelsenbeck; Fredrik Ronquist
Journal:  Syst Biol       Date:  2016-05-28       Impact factor: 15.683

7.  Evaluating probabilistic programming and fast variational Bayesian inference in phylogenetics.

Authors:  Mathieu Fourment; Aaron E Darling
Journal:  PeerJ       Date:  2019-12-18       Impact factor: 2.984

8.  Probabilistic graphical model representation in phylogenetics.

Authors:  Sebastian Höhna; Tracy A Heath; Bastien Boussau; Michael J Landis; Fredrik Ronquist; John P Huelsenbeck
Journal:  Syst Biol       Date:  2014-06-20       Impact factor: 15.683

9.  Automatic detection of key innovations, rate shifts, and diversity-dependence on phylogenetic trees.

Authors:  Daniel L Rabosky
Journal:  PLoS One       Date:  2014-02-26       Impact factor: 3.240

Review 10.  A biologist's guide to Bayesian phylogenetic analysis.

Authors:  Fabrícia F Nascimento; Mario Dos Reis; Ziheng Yang
Journal:  Nat Ecol Evol       Date:  2017-09-21       Impact factor: 15.460

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  2 in total

1.  Felsenstein Phylogenetic Likelihood.

Authors:  David Posada; Keith A Crandall
Journal:  J Mol Evol       Date:  2021-01-13       Impact factor: 2.395

2.  Macroevolutionary dynamics in the transition of angiosperms to aquatic environments.

Authors:  Andrea S Meseguer; Rubén Carrillo; Sean W Graham; Isabel Sanmartín
Journal:  New Phytol       Date:  2022-04-05       Impact factor: 10.323

  2 in total

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