| Literature DB >> 33617473 |
Sarah Anne J Guagliardo1,2, Ryan Wiegand1, Sharon L Roy1, Christopher A Cleveland3, Hubert Zirimwabagabo2, Elisabeth Chop2, Philippe Tchindebet Ouakou4, Ernesto Ruiz-Tiben2, Donald R Hopkins2, Adam J Weiss2.
Abstract
The Guinea Worm Eradication Program has been extraordinarily successful-in 2019, there were 53 human cases reported, down from the estimated 3.5 million in 1986. Yet the occurrence of Guinea worm in dogs is a challenge to eradication efforts, and underlying questions about transmission dynamics remain. We used routine surveillance data to run negative binomial regressions predicting worm burden among infected dogs in Chad. Of 3,371 infected dogs reported during 2015-2018, 38.5% had multiple worms. A multivariable model showed that the number of dogs in the household was negatively associated with worm burden (adjusted incidence rate ratio [AIRR] = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.93-0.97, P < 0.0001) after adjusting for dog age (AIRR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.96-1.01, P > 0.1). This could relate to the amount of infective inocula (e.g., contaminated food or water) shared by multiple dogs in a household. Other significant univariable associations with worm burden included dog history of Guinea worm infection (IRR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.18-1.45) and dog owners who were hunters (IRR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.62-0.99, P < 0.05) or farmers (IRR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.77-0.90, P < 0.0001). Further analysis showed that the number of dogs in the household was significantly and positively correlated with nearly all other independent variables (e.g., owner occupation: farmer, fisherman, or hunter; dog age, sex, and history of Guinea worm). The associations we identified between worm burden and dogs per household, and dogs per household and owner characteristics should be further investigated with more targeted studies.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 33617473 PMCID: PMC8045642 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.19-0924
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Am J Trop Med Hyg ISSN: 0002-9637 Impact factor: 2.345
Figure 1.A dog with an emerging guinea worm and several lesions. Although most dogs present with a single Guinea worm, the observed range of worms per dogs is 1–79, as detected by the CGWEP surveillance system. The dog in this photo has an emerging worm (foreground) in addition to several lesions from other worms (right). (Photo credit: Robert Hartwig, The Carter Center.) This figure appears in color at
Proportion of contained worms by emergence order
| Proportion of contained worms | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total worms contained | Dogs with two worms | Dogs with three worms | Dogs with four worms | |||||||||||
| (n = 575) | (n = 251) | (n = 108) | ||||||||||||
| Worm sequence | (% contained) | (% contained) | χ2 | (% contained) | χ2 | (% contained) | χ2 | |||||||
| Worm 1 | 677 | (72.5) | 426 | (74.1) | – | – | 181 | (72.1) | – | – | 70 | (64.8) | – | – |
| Worm 2 | 769 | (82.3) | 474 | (82.4) | – | – | 206 | (82.1) | – | – | 89 | (82.4) | – | – |
| Worm 3 | 297 | (82.7) | NA | – | – | – | 205 | (81.7) | – | – | 92 | (85.2) | – | – |
| Worm 4 | 90 | (83.3) | NA | – | – | – | NA | – | – | – | 90 | (83.3) | – | – |
| – | – | – | – | < 0.001 | – | – | < 0.01 | – | – | < 0.001 | ||||
Among dogs with multiple worms, worms that emerged later in the sequence were significantly more likely to be contained. Bold indicates statistical significance.
Figure 2.Comparison of negative binomial regression models. For all input datasets used, dogs with a history of previous Guinea worm infection in a different year were more likely to have elevated worm burden, and the number of dogs present in the household was negatively correlated with worm burden. Multivariable models were consistent for all input datasets. This figure appears in color at
Univariable and multivariable negative binomial regression models of worm burden, 2015–2018 data
| Variable (reference category) | Univariable, | Incidence rate ratio (95% CI) | Multivariable, | Adjusted incidence rate ratio (95% CI) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. of dogs in household | 3,285 | 3,226 | ||||
| Dog age (years) | 3,280 | 0.98 (0.96–1.005) | > 0.1 | – | 0.99 (0.96–1.01) | > 0.1 |
| Dog from fishing village (not from fishing village) | 3,217 | 0.97 (0.89–1.05) | > 0.1 | – | – | – |
| Dog has history of GW infection in a previous year | 3,338 | – | – | – | ||
| Dog sex, female (male) | 3,325 | 1.0005 (0.94–1.08) | > 0.5 | – | – | – |
| Owner ethnicity, Sara Kaba (other ethnicity) | 3,345 | 0.95 (0.88–1.03) | > 0.1 | – | – | – |
| Owner occupation, farmer (not a farmer) | 3,345 | – | – | – | ||
| Owner occupation, fisherman (not a fisherman) | 3,345 | 0.99 (0.91–1.10) | > 0.5 | – | – | – |
| Owner occupation, hunter (not a hunter) | 3,345 | – | – | – |
An increased number of dogs in the household negatively correlated with worm burden for both univariable and multivariable models when adjusting for dog age. Univariable models showed that risk of elevated worm burden was greater for dogs with a history of Guinea worm infection; decreased risk of elevated worm burden was associated with owner occupation (hunter or farmer). Bold indicates statistical significance.
Univariable and multivariable negative binomial regression models of worm burden, 2018 data
| Variable (reference category) | Univariable, | Incidence rate ratio (95% CI) | Multivariable, | Adjusted incidence rate ratio (95% CI) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. of dogs in household | 1,004 | 983 | ||||
| Dog age (years) | 999 | 0.97 (0.94–1.01) | > 0.1 | – | 0.98 (0.94–1.02) | > 0.1 |
| Dog from fishing village (not from fishing village) | 990 | – | – | – | ||
| Dog has history of GW infection in a previous year | 1,020 | – | – | – | ||
| Dog sex, female (male) | 1,012 | 0.95 (0.85–1.05) | > 0.1 | – | – | – |
| Dog use, guarding (not used for guarding) | 1,018 | 1.15 (0.94–1.37) | > 0.1 | – | – | – |
| Dog use, guarding/hunting (not used for guarding/hunting) | 1,020 | 0.91 (0.82–1.02) | > 0.05 | – | – | – |
| Dog use, hunting (not used for hunting) | 1,014 | 0.92 (0.83–1.03) | > 0.05 | – | – | – |
| Owner ethnicity, Sara Kaba (other ethnicity) | 1,020 | – | – | – | ||
| Owner occupation, farmer (not a farmer) | 1,020 | 0.94 (0.85–1.06) | > 0.1 | – | – | – |
| Owner occupation, fisherman (not a fisherman) | 1,020 | 0.98 (0.86–1.12) | > 0.5 | – | – | – |
| Owner occupation, hunter (not a hunter) | 1,020 | 0.97 (0.51–1.82) | > 0.5 | – | – | – |
An increased number of dogs in the household was negatively correlated with worm burden for both univariable and multivariable models (when adjusting for dog age). Univariable models showed that risk of elevated worm burden was greater for dogs with a history of Guinea worm infection; decreased risk of elevated worm burden was associated with owner ethnicity (Sara Kaba) and whether the dog came from a fishing village. Bold indicates statistical significance.