AIM: Assess risks related to breaches of poliovirus containment. METHOD: Using a dynamic transmission model, we explore the variability among different populations in the vulnerability to poliovirus containment breaches as population immunity to transmission declines after oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation. RESULTS: Although using OPV instead of wild poliovirus (WPV) seed strains for inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) production offers some expected risk reintroduction of live polioviruses from IPV manufacturing facilities, OPV seed strain releases may become a significant threat within 5-10 years of OPV cessation in areas most conducive to fecal-oral poliovirus transmission, regardless of IPV use. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to quantify the risks demonstrate the challenges associated with understanding and managing relatively low-probability and high-consequence containment failure events.
AIM: Assess risks related to breaches of poliovirus containment. METHOD: Using a dynamic transmission model, we explore the variability among different populations in the vulnerability to poliovirus containment breaches as population immunity to transmission declines after oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation. RESULTS: Although using OPV instead of wild poliovirus (WPV) seed strains for inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) production offers some expected risk reintroduction of live polioviruses from IPV manufacturing facilities, OPV seed strain releases may become a significant threat within 5-10 years of OPV cessation in areas most conducive to fecal-oral poliovirus transmission, regardless of IPV use. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to quantify the risks demonstrate the challenges associated with understanding and managing relatively low-probability and high-consequence containment failure events.
Authors: Radboud J Duintjer Tebbens; Mark A Pallansch; Stephen L Cochi; Derek T Ehrhardt; Noha H Farag; Stephen C Hadler; Lee M Hampton; Maureen Martinez; Steve G F Wassilak; Kimberly M Thompson Journal: Risk Anal Date: 2018-01-03 Impact factor: 4.000
Authors: Radboud J Duintjer Tebbens; Mark A Pallansch; Olen M Kew; Victor M Cáceres; Roland W Sutter; Kimberly M Thompson Journal: Am J Epidemiol Date: 2005-07-13 Impact factor: 4.897
Authors: Walter Dowdle; Harrie van der Avoort; Esther de Gourville; Francis Delpeyroux; Jagadish Desphande; Tapani Hovi; Javier Martin; Mark Pallansch; Olen Kew; Chris Wolff Journal: Risk Anal Date: 2006-12 Impact factor: 4.000
Authors: Kimberly M Thompson; Mark A Pallansch; Radboud J Duintjer Tebbens; Steve G Wassilak; Stephen L Cochi Journal: Risk Anal Date: 2012-09-17 Impact factor: 4.000
Authors: B W Mahy; J W Almond; K I Berns; R M Chanock; D K Lvov; R F Pettersson; H G Schatzmayr; F Fenner Journal: Science Date: 1993-11-19 Impact factor: 47.728