Epke A Le Rutte1,2,3, Luc E Coffeng1, Johanna Muñoz1, Sake J de Vlas1. 1. Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands. 2. Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland. 3. University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In March 2020, India declared a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019. As a result, control efforts against visceral leishmaniasis (VL) were interrupted. METHODS: Using an established age-structured deterministic VL transmission model, we predicted the impact of a 6- to 24-month programme interruption on the timeline towards achieving the VL elimination target as well as on the increase of VL cases. We also explored the potential impact of a mitigation strategy after the interruption. RESULTS: Delays towards the elimination target are estimated to range between 0 and 9 y. Highly endemic settings where control efforts have been ongoing for 5-8 y are most affected by an interruption, for which we identified a mitigation strategy to be most relevant. However, more importantly, all settings can expect an increase in the number of VL cases. This increase is substantial even for settings with a limited expected delay in achieving the elimination target. CONCLUSIONS: Besides implementing mitigation strategies, it is of great importance to try and keep the duration of the interruption as short as possible to prevent new individuals from becoming infected with VL and continue the efforts towards VL elimination as a public health problem in India.
BACKGROUND: In March 2020, India declared a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019. As a result, control efforts against visceral leishmaniasis (VL) were interrupted. METHODS: Using an established age-structured deterministic VL transmission model, we predicted the impact of a 6- to 24-month programme interruption on the timeline towards achieving the VL elimination target as well as on the increase of VL cases. We also explored the potential impact of a mitigation strategy after the interruption. RESULTS: Delays towards the elimination target are estimated to range between 0 and 9 y. Highly endemic settings where control efforts have been ongoing for 5-8 y are most affected by an interruption, for which we identified a mitigation strategy to be most relevant. However, more importantly, all settings can expect an increase in the number of VL cases. This increase is substantial even for settings with a limited expected delay in achieving the elimination target. CONCLUSIONS: Besides implementing mitigation strategies, it is of great importance to try and keep the duration of the interruption as short as possible to prevent new individuals from becoming infected with VL and continue the efforts towards VL elimination as a public health problem in India.
Authors: Anna Borlase; Epke A Le Rutte; Soledad Castaño; David J Blok; Jaspreet Toor; Federica Giardina; Emma L Davis Journal: Lancet Glob Health Date: 2022-11 Impact factor: 38.927
Authors: Jessica Clark; Wilma A Stolk; María-Gloria Basáñez; Luc E Coffeng; Zulma M Cucunubá; Matthew A Dixon; Louise Dyson; Katie Hampson; Michael Marks; Graham F Medley; Timothy M Pollington; Joaquin M Prada; Kat S Rock; Henrik Salje; Jaspreet Toor; T Déirdre Hollingsworth Journal: Gates Open Res Date: 2022-02-02
Authors: T Déirdre Hollingsworth; Pauline Mwinzi; Andreia Vasconcelos; Sake J de Vlas Journal: Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg Date: 2021-03-06 Impact factor: 2.184